Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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033 FXUS62 KMLB 211725 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 125 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions forecast through the period at all terminals. Spotty shower coverage across east central Florida today, as NE flow remains in place. Winds at the terminals may become gusty this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible. VCSH through 00Z across the interior terminals, and continuing overnight at the coastal terminals. Winds will become lighter at 5 to 10 knots, remaining out of the NE overnight. Similar set up for tomorrow, with spotty shower coverage and persistent NE flow. VCSH after 16Z across the interior terminals and persisting along the coastal terminals. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current-Tonight...Troughiness in the mid-levels will continue to weaken and push seaward over the next 24 hours. Stout mid-level high pressure over Texas will expand eastward with mid-level heights rising across the GoMex and FL peninsula. Light morning winds at the surface will become NERLY and increase 10-15 mph with higher afternoon gusts; we may see some coastal locations average 15-20 mph this afternoon for wind speeds. A diffuse sea breeze will develop and push inland. Only modest deep layer moisture is present and our precip chances will remain below normal with 20pct north/west of I-4 and highest up to 40pct across the Space and Treasure coasts. Storm motion will be fairly slow and out of the north to northeast. Lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds locally will be the main threats. Activity diminishes this evening, though will retain a small PoP along the coast overnight for ISOLD "low-topped" convection chances. Afternoon highs in the U80s to around 90F. Peak heat indices this afternoon more-or-less seasonal in the M-U90s. Overnight mins generally in the L-M70s while conditions remain humid. There will be a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at the beaches along Volusia and north Brevard counties, while a Moderate risk continues southward through Martin County. Additionally, minor coastal flooding remains a concern during high tide. The highest water levels are forecast in the late morning hours with a secondary peak in the late evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 This Weekend... High pressure holds over the Southeast U.S., ensuring northeast winds 8-15 KT. Nearshore seas 3-4 FT building to 4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will persist over the next couple days. Monday-Wednesday... Occasionally poor boating conditions. High pressure pushes into the W Atlantic, allowing winds to turn from ENE to E 10-15 KT. Seas 3-5 FT, except up to 6 FT well offshore. Rain shower coverage becomes more isolated late Monday through mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 89 / 20 20 0 10 MCO 73 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 20 MLB 75 89 76 88 / 20 30 20 20 VRB 73 89 75 89 / 20 30 30 30 LEE 73 91 73 92 / 0 20 0 10 SFB 73 89 73 90 / 10 30 0 10 ORL 74 91 75 92 / 10 30 0 10 FPR 73 89 74 89 / 20 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Tollefsen