Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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226 FXUS62 KMLB 211342 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 942 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current-Tonight...Troughiness in the mid-levels will continue to weaken and push seaward over the next 24 hours. Stout mid-level high pressure over Texas will expand eastward with mid-level heights rising across the GoMex and FL peninsula. Light morning winds at the surface will become NERLY and increase 10-15 mph with higher afternoon gusts; we may see some coastal locations average 15-20 mph this afternoon for wind speeds. A diffuse sea breeze will develop and push inland. Only modest deep layer moisture is present and our precip chances will remain below normal with 20pct north/west of I-4 and highest up to 40pct across the Space and Treasure coasts. Storm motion will be fairly slow and out of the north to northeast. Lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds locally will be the main threats. Activity diminishes this evening, though will retain a small PoP along the coast overnight for ISOLD "low-topped" convection chances. Afternoon highs in the U80s to around 90F. Peak heat indices this afternoon more-or-less seasonal in the M-U90s. Overnight mins generally in the L-M70s while conditions remain humid. There will be a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at the beaches along Volusia and north Brevard counties, while a Moderate risk continues southward through Martin County. Additionally, minor coastal flooding remains a concern during high tide. The highest water levels are forecast in the late morning hours with a secondary peak in the late evening. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 723 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Showers continue to stream onshore this morning. Expect this activity to persist into early afternoon, with VCTS included for MLB southward after 14Z. By 18Z, showers with embedded lightning storms are forecast to push inland, clearing interior locations by around 0Z. Models suggest LEE remaining dry, so have forgone VCSH or VCTS mention there. Showers and a few storms will be possible once again along the coast overnight, with VCSH included after 1Z. NE flow through the period, becoming breezy this afternoon, with gusts up to 18-20kts, especially along the coast. Winds will diminish towards sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 This Weekend... High pressure holds over the Southeast U.S., ensuring northeast winds 8-15 KT. Nearshore seas 3-4 FT building to 4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will persist over the next couple days. Monday-Wednesday... Occasionally poor boating conditions. High pressure pushes into the W Atlantic, allowing winds to turn from ENE to E 10-15 KT. Seas 3-5 FT, except up to 6 FT well offshore. Rain shower coverage becomes more isolated late Monday through mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 75 89 75 / 30 20 30 10 MCO 89 74 91 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 88 76 89 76 / 40 20 30 20 VRB 88 74 89 75 / 40 20 30 30 LEE 90 73 91 73 / 20 0 20 0 SFB 88 74 89 73 / 30 10 30 0 ORL 90 75 91 75 / 30 10 30 0 FPR 88 74 89 75 / 40 20 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Leahy