Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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576 FXUS64 KMOB 220403 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1103 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent through Sunday evening. Light patchy fog could develop in a few spots overnight. Winds will become light/variable tonight into early Sunday morning, then southeasterly to southerly 5-10 knots over a good portion of the area Saturday afternoon. /21 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Big bubble no trouble for now as dry conditions persist through the forecast period. High pressure over central Texas will continue to nose into the deep south brining dry northerly flow across the area. At the surface a front has pushed deep into the central Gulf. All this will lead dry seasonable conditions across the area. With deep dry air in place, the only real adjustments made were to lower afternoon dewpoints and bump high temperatures up a degree or two as deep vertical mixing seems likely. Rain chances will remain near zero for the time being. BB/03 SHORT and LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 441 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry and warm conditions continue through Tuesday as upper level ridging remains over the region. The ridge begins to break down Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper trough begins to dig across the plains. This will allow rain chances to increase by the middle of the week. Then all eyes turn toward the southern Gulf where an area of low pressure is expected to be located by Wednesday afternoon. The low is expected to move northward into the break between the upper trough to the west and the ridge to the east. The strength of the ridge and trough will ultimately play a deciding role is the eventual track of the system. Until there is an actually low center to track and increased upper air data over the Gulf and southeastern US, model tracks will continue to struggle. Therefore, the main idea here is to continue to monitor forecast updates and make sure you have a plan in place. /13 MARINE... Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds become southeasterly this afternoon, with an easterly to southeasterly flow following through Wednesday. Seas begin to build Wednesday through Thursday as an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf. We will closely monitor the progression of this low pressure as it will likely result in hazardous conditions for small craft. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 94 69 91 71 90 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 40 Pensacola 73 92 73 90 74 88 76 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 40 Destin 75 91 75 90 75 88 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 Evergreen 68 96 67 95 69 93 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 Waynesboro 69 95 67 93 67 91 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 Camden 69 95 69 93 70 91 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 68 95 66 93 69 92 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob