638
FXUS64 KMOB 260914
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
414 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Early morning satellite imagery continues to show an upper level low
that remains cutoff over the vicinity of southern IL/IN and western
KY while Hurricane Helene continues to look more impressive on
satellite presentation across the south central Gulf. The upper
level low will move little today but is forecast to slowly pivot
southward toward northern MS late tonight into early Friday morning.
Hurricane Helene will meanwhile be steered north-northeastward
toward the Florida Big Bend region and will likely experience rapid
intensification to major hurricane strength before landfall.

A weak surface boundary remains oriented roughly along the I-65
corridor early this morning. A drier airmass is in place west of the
boundary where precipitable water values are lowered to 1.25-1.5
inches. A very moist airmass remains in place along and east of I-
65, especially across portions of south central AL and the western
FL panhandle where PWAT values range up to 2.0-2.4 inches per latest
guidance. We expect a stark gradient in POP values from west to east
across our forecast area today, and expect rain chances to increase
considerably across south central AL and a good portion of the
western FL panhandle today within the higher PWAT airmass east of
the boundary and the far northwestern periphery of Helene. Given the
depth/quality of moisture, will need to monitor for locally heavy
rainfall and localized flooding concerns, particularly over portions
of south central AL and the western FL panhandle where rainfall
amounts up to around 2" and locally higher may fall in a short
period of time.

Helene is still forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane in
the FL Big Bend Coast by early this evening. The tight gradient/
expanding wind field on the western side of Helene will result in
gusty winds across coastal portions of our CWA as well as into
interior portions of south central AL. The fast forward motion will
allow Helene to quickly lift into Georgia tonight. The deeper
moisture should lift to the north of our area tonight  with a drier
airmass settling in place, so rain chances should diminish.

Other than a minor modification to the Wind Advisory, no significant
changes have been made to ongoing hazards. Here are our latest
thoughts:

.Wind Advisory. Winds will begin to increase as Helene approaches
the northeastern Gulf Coast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from
noon Thursday to midnight Thursday night for Okaloosa, Santa Rosa,
and Escambia counties in the western FL panhandle, and for
Covington, southern Mobile and southern Baldwin counties in AL. We
did opt to add Butler and Crenshaw counties into the Wind Advisory
as the gradient tightens on the western fringe of Helene. Winds of
15-25 mph with potential gusts up to 40 mph are anticipated in the
Wind Advisory area.

.Beach Hazards: Long period swell packets continue to approach our
coastline and will arrive at area beaches early this morning. A High
Surf Warning remains in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM Friday for
all our surf zones where large breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet are
expected. Minor coastal flooding is also expected during high tide
which may result in flooding of lots, parks, and low lying roads
mainly along the immediate coastal sections due to the wave runup. A
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect along the coastal interface
of southern and central portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties in
Alabama along with coastal portions of Escambia, Santa Rosa, and
Okaloosa Counties in Florida where minor coastal flooding is
expected. This Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 6 AM
Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday. In addition, a High Rip Current Risk
remains in effect through late Friday night. Everyone should remain
out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off
of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure. /21

&&

.SHORT AND EXTENDED TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Other than a small chance for rain over a portion of Choctaw
county Friday afternoon, dry conditions are expected through
Wednesday, although can`t rule out a stray shower or storm each
day. Helene will be located over northern Georgia Friday morning
and weakening, and soon becomes absorbed into a large upper low
over the southeastern states. The upper low eventually breaks down
to an upper trof and moves off into the western Atlantic by
Tuesday. Highs tend to be in the lower to mid 80s with upper 80s
possible in some locations. Lows will be in the 60s except for
lower 70s at the coast. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane
before crossing the Big Bend coast of Florida this evening or
early Friday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
the Florida 0-60 nm Gulf waters, the 20-60 nm portion of the
Alabama waters, and eastern Choctawhatchee Bay. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Winds and
seas subside on Friday. Please see the National Hurricane Center
for the latest on Helene. Winds and seas will be higher near
storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  63  84  66  87  66  87  67 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   79  68  83  72  86  71  86  71 /  70  30   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      80  69  83  73  85  73  86  73 /  90  60   0   0   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   79  62  84  63  87  62  88  64 /  70  50  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  83  61  82  63  85  61  85  62 /   0   0  10   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      77  62  80  64  82  62  84  63 /  40  40  10   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   78  63  84  64  88  65  88  66 /  90  60   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for ALZ057-
     058-060-263>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for
     FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>635-650.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ636-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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