Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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570 FXUS63 KMPX 260747 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 247 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions across western MN this afternoon. - High in the 80s through Monday. - A dry cold front will pass on Monday, briefly dropping temperatures down Tuesday and Wednesday next week. - September of 2024 will be the warmest and driest on record in the Twin Cities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 It`s a clear and calm morning across the Upper Midwest with less fog than yesterday morning, but there are still patches here and there. It will be another pleasant day with full sun and highs returning to the low to mid 80s. Increasing winds and RH dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s across western Minnesota will bring elevated fire weather conditions there this afternoon. The pattern will remain stagnant for the next several days thanks to ridging from the southwestern U.S. stretching north into central Canada. A cut off low over the Mid South will interact with a landfalling Hurricane Helene in the Florida Big Bend region later today and tonight. The result will be an even deeper cut off low that is not expected to move much through Sunday. A rinse and repeat forecast is in the cards for us with each day rising into the 80s under clear skies. By early next week, a deep trough will traverse Canada and send a cold front south late Monday/Monday night, while also kicking the southern low out. A sharp drop in temperatures expected Tuesday with highs only in the low to mid 60s. Some moderation back to the 70s should occur mid week as the trough lifts out. There is very little or no chance of precipitation until perhaps later next week and another trough approaches. As noted in the previous discussion, it`s now certain this month will be the warmest and driest September on record in the Twin Cities with the current numbers already breaking the records set last year, several days with well above normal temps forthcoming, and no precipitation expected until at least early October. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Light and variable winds and clear skies are expected through this morning. Fog is once again a possibility for our Wisconsin terminals early this morning, but only felt confident enough to include it as a TEMPO for KEAU. Southerly winds around 5-10kts are expected this afternoon before becoming light and variable once again overnight. The exception is KAXN which could see gusts near 20kts this afternoon. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind S 5 kts becoming E. SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Dye