Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
847 FXUS65 KMSO 231917 CCA AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Missoula MT 117 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .DISCUSSION...Ridging builds in with warm and dry weather through much of Wednesday. There will be a mix of clouds and sunshine with typical afternoon breezes of 15-20 mph. High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching near daily records on Wednesday. The ridge axis is pushed eastward later Wednesday as a Pacific trough comes onshore. One noticeable impact will be gusty winds each afternoon/evening Wednesday through Friday. There is a 45-55% chance of gusts over 30 mph in western Montana valleys, around 20% for lower elevations of north-central Idaho. Watch for choppy conditions on area lakes. Also, increased instability and shear Wednesday late afternoon and evening will lead to a few thunderstorms from north-central Idaho into northwest Montana. A storm or two will be capable of gusty outflow winds and hail. A chance of showers will continue into Thursday morning, especially from I-90 northward. Daytime temperatures will gradually cool back to more seasonable values (70s in the valleys) by the end of the week. There is considerable uncertainty late next weekend with about 35% of ensemble clusters dropping a cool trough into the Northern Rockies. This pattern is a decent set up for snow in the mountains along the Divide, followed by temperatures near freezing for western Montana valleys. However, the majority of models (65%) are not as deep with the trough, thus less precipitation and milder temperatures. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue into Tuesday as ridging builds in. Afternoon breezes of 15-20 kts will diminish by sunset. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$