Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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976 FXUS64 KOHX 231118 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 618 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy dense fog has developed across the plateau early this morning thanks to some rainfall that fell on Sunday afternoon. This fog should burn off shortly after sunrise giving way to one more day (we promise just one more day) of temperatures approaching that 90F degree mark. As that frontal boundary gets closer and closer to Middle Tennessee, a weak upper level impulse will help provide a focus for convection development this afternoon and evening. The northern half of the area is at risk for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the main threat being damaging winds. More fog will develop again tonight especially across locations that get lucky enough and receive rain. Tuesday is pretty much a carbon copy of today with storms sinking a little further south and High Temps a few degrees cooler. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The main theme in the long term will be rain chances, possibly heavy rain at times, and cooler temperatures. All eyes will shift to the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical system develops rapidly with aim to make landfall likely somewhere across the northern Gulf Coast to western Florida coastline. With a fairly strong closed upper low across Arkansas at the same time, the remnants of this tropical system will likely hangout over the region for several days increasing the chances for much needed rain. Yes, this sounds similar to the forecast we provided with the remnants of Francine two weeks ago with underwhelming results for a good 3/4ths of the forecast area. But this time, there doesn`t appear to be a strong gradient of dry air setting up directly over the area. In addition, ensemble solutions definitely keep the area wet for a good chunk of the forecast period. Think the heaviest rainfall days look like Wednesday through Friday with total amounts approaching several inches. These rainfall forecasts will be refined over the coming days, but it looks like the area will likely see some good rainfall that will at least put a dent in the ongoing drought situation. By Monday, the upper level low finally kicks east helping push the moisture east of the area bringing drier weather and keeping the cooler temperatures around for awhile. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy dense fog has developed this morning, primarily impacting KCKV, KCSV, and KSRB with IFR visibilities. This fog will diminish after sunrise. Primary aviation concern through today will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of storms is expected between 18Z and 00Z, but confidence in exact timing for terminals is low. Primary impacts will be reduced visibility from heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Fog is likely to redevelop tonight, especially across the Plateau, with IFR visibilities once again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 90 71 86 67 / 60 40 60 50 Clarksville 86 69 82 63 / 60 70 80 30 Crossville 86 63 82 61 / 60 20 70 70 Columbia 91 68 86 65 / 50 20 70 60 Cookeville 86 66 83 64 / 70 20 70 70 Jamestown 84 65 82 63 / 70 30 80 70 Lawrenceburg 90 68 87 65 / 50 20 60 60 Murfreesboro 91 69 88 66 / 60 30 60 60 Waverly 89 68 81 63 / 60 60 80 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hurley LONG TERM....Hurley AVIATION.....Clements