370
FXUS65 KPIH 292000
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
200 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. Cold front has shifted
through East Idaho, with upper trough axis working through. Radar
shows mainly isolated thunderstorm activity so far along the
Montana border. CAPE around 1000 J/kg, shear 35-40 kts, and steep
lapse rates in lowest levels all support gusts over 50 mph and
hail around 3/4". Bear Lake another potential region for development
this afternoon into early evening, but cloud cover so far today
may limit potential instability and inhibit strongest development.
Added small hail/gusty wind/heavy rain wording to the
thunderstorms through the remainder of today. Gusty non-
thunderstorm winds remain a concern across the Snake Plain, where
steep gradient coincides with clearing and mixing of stronger
winds aloft. Wind Advisory remains in place through the early
evening, when gradient relaxes and strongest winds subside. Cooler
airmass in place behind this front, and temperatures drop cold
enough to support yet another night of Frost headlines for
portions of the Snake Plain. Coldest temperatures will be from
Shoshone-Arco-Mud Lake-Rexburg, with much of the populated
I-15/I-86 corridor expected to be warmer than the 36F threshold
for frost. Weak broad trough remains in place over the region into
Thursday/Thursday night, allowing for the coldest period as drier
and clearer air mass works into the region. Gusty winds in place
one more day, but should be below any Advisory thresholds,
including for American Falls Reservoir. May need another night of
Frost headlines for portions of the Snake Plain for Thursday
night. DMH


.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday. Brief ridge of high
pressure continues into Friday as temperatures nudge back up into
the high 60s/low 70s for most lower elevations. Ridge breaks down
Saturday as weak shortwave drives through the region for next
chance at showers/thunderstorms and a bit of wind mainly late
afternoon into the evening. Temperatures Saturday surge into the
upper 70s/lower 80s before dropping slightly again Sunday as
remnants of the shortwave feature slide through. Ensemble clusters
show strong agreement on relatively flat but progressive flow for
Monday into Tuesday. Monday should be the wettest and day as main
feature shifts through the region, with lingering showers mainly
eastern areas Tuesday. Both days looks breezy to windy. Next ridge
builds beginning Wednesday, with clusters in good agreement for a
higher amplitude ridge axis developing through the Intermountain
West or Coastal states through the remainder of the week. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...Another day with mixed conditions across East Idaho as
a frontal system slides through the region. Windy conditions
through the Snake Plain impacting KBYI/KPIH/KIDA with sustained
winds 20-25kts and gusts around 35kts. These winds are expected to
continue into early evening before subsiding. A few thunderstorms
have developed north along the Montana border, but showers and a
few thunderstorms remain possible along the Wyoming border south
to the Bear Lake area through early evening as well. Small hail
and gusty winds around 45kts are possible. All wind and
thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish before 06Z, with
winds gradually decreasing to around 10kts overnight. VFR CIGS are
expected throughout, though MVFR is likely in the vicinity of
stronger thunderstorms. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ051>053.

&&

$$