109
FXUS65 KPUB 262343
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
543 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak front will push across region tomorrow morning bringing
slightly cooler temps to the plains.

- Some showers over the mountains tomorrow afternoon...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Currently...

Skies were mostly clear over the forecast area early this afternoon.
Temperatures were in the mid 80s across the plains with around 70F
over the valleys. Winds were light.

Next 24 hours...

Main concern this fcst period will be a weak boundary pushing across
the region tomorrow morning. This is in response to a short
wave moving east well north of the fcst area. This front will
bring slightly cooler weather to the plains tomorrow afternoon,
with temps expected to be about 3-5 degrees cooler over the
plains as compared to today. It is expected to remain dry over
the lower elevations tomorrow.

Over the mtns and valleys, little change in temps are expected,
with the main change being a chance of some showers over the
higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, with the overall best chance
of precip over the CONTDVD. With warm temps over the mtns once
again, some locally gusty winds will be possible with any heavier
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Friday night-Sunday night: Upper ridging rebuilds across the Rockies
behind Fridays passing system leading to mainly dry weather
and at and above seasonal temperatures on tap for the weekend.
Warm temperatures under the building ridge look to keep lows at
and above seasonal levels, with no indications of widespread
sub-freezing temperatures through the weekend. Highs will
continue to run some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels in
the 80s to lower 90s across the Plains, and mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the higher terrain.

Monday-Tuesday: Latest models coming into slightly better agreement
with an eastern Pacific system translating through the northern
Tier on Monday, with the systems associated front pushing
south across eastern Colorado late morning and Monday afternoon.
Models do agree with very little moisture associated with this
passing system, keeping dry conditions in place both Monday and
Tuesday. However, with warm air aloft and good mixing, highs on
Monday could warm to near record levels in the mid 80s to mid
90s across the Plains. Breezy northerly winds expected behind
the front late Monday afternoon into the evening, with
developing upslope flow and slightly cooler temperatures aloft
leading to highs cooling to near seasonal levels in the 70s and
80s on Tuesday.

Wednesday-Thursday: There are some model differences in timing and
strength of systems moving across the northern Tier through the
end of next week, however should see increasing westerly flow
aloft across the region on Wednesday, which will again lead to
an increase in temperatures on Wednesday, with the potential for
another front moving across the region on Thursday. With the
increasing flow aloft, there could also be some fire weather
concerns across the region on Wednesday. There is some
discrepancy on the amount of available moisture associated with
this passing system, and have stuck with the NBM, which keeps
the region dry through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Main concern will be a period of gusty winds late tonight and
early Friday morning due to the passage of a boundary (hard to
call it a front). That will lend itself to a brief period of
gusty northerly winds at KCOS (80% confidence of gusts to 25-30
kts) 10Z-15Z, and at PUB (60% confidence of gusts reaching 20
kts 13Z-17Z). Those winds will lighten up by 17Z-19Z Friday,
with a return of more easterly diurnal wind component
thereafter. KALS will see lighter winds throughout this TAF
period. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with
only some mid level clouds expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VHodanish
LONG TERM...Wanwkowski
AVIATION...Barjenbruch/WFO Boulder