Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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137 FXUS61 KRLX 231757 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 157 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek. Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... Frontal boundary snaking across parts of the area will lift north tonight as a warm front as low pressure across the lower MS Valley tracks northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon, most notably across the mountains where a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some of the model solutions are quick to bring in shower/thunder chances late tonight from the west as the aforementioned frontal boundary lingers off to the west. Given the developing southeast flow overnight, I tended to favor the drier solution for the area. Expect low stratus and river valley fog to form with dense fog possible should the sky remain mostly cloud free. This is a low confidence forecast all things considered. Upper trof across the upper Midwest will energize this boundary on Tuesday. Upper level jet dynamics combined with surface lift along and ahead of the front should give us the best chances for widespread shower thunderstorm activity we`ve had in recent memory. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms should some surface heating be realized, most notably across western zones. This would be dependent on the extent of any morning showers. In addition, some southwest to northeast training of activity is possible which would give some localized rainfall amounts. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... Unsettled weather continues to bring beneficial rainfall to the forecast area during the period in response to a stalled frontal boundary loiters overhead. Rain will grow more bountiful Tuesday evening into the overnight period as a nearly stacked disturbance ventures down from the Midwest. This feature will place the forecast area on the eastern side of the parent trough, ushering in waves of moisture and vorticity to enhance rainfall accumulations. An uptick in instability may also yield strong to possibly severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening, but given the uncertainty of antecedent convective trends during the day to the west, SPC has painted a broad Marginal Risk for the area for damaging wind potential. The cold front sails into the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, bringing diminishing shower chances across the western flank of the CWA. The front is progged to get hung up somewhere in and around Central Appalachia for midweek, which will maintain unsettled weather through the short term and beyond into the long term forecast period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1220 PM Monday... Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region, and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low, particularly across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM Monday... Low end VFR cumulus/stratocumulus will tend to lift and scatter a bit through the afternoon. A frontal boundary lingering over the area will provide the focus for isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder with the best chances across the mountains. The frontal boundary will retreat to the northwest tonight with low stratus and river valley fog developing late. Given the uncertainty regarding showers moving back into the area, held most TAF sites at MVFR except EKN/BKW where IFR conditions were inserted in the TAFs. Some morning showers may affect the terminals, but coverage remains in question. Otherwise, stratus gradually scatter out as shower/thunderstorm chances ramp up midday ahead of the frontal boundary. Southeasterly light flow tonight, veering to the southwest Tuesday around 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and/or dense valley fog may be more prevalent. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/SL NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30