Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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095 FXUS61 KRLX 251834 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 234 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1226 PM Wednesday... Key Points: * Flood Watch in effect for southwest VA and McDowell Co. in WV until Thursday evening. A frontal boundary, oriented north to south, remains stationary just west of the area tonight, before becoming diffused on Thursday. Meanwhile, ripples of vorticity, associated with deepening upper level low, will continue to provide necessary forcing to maintain showers and thunderstorms going tonight into Thursday. PWATs values about two standard deviation from the mean, coupled with deep layered shear 45 to 50 knots should promote showers and strong thunderstorms capable to produce very heavy downpours. Hi-res CAMs suggest another batch of convection affecting southern WV, southwest VA this evening, and continuing with lighter rainfall during the overnight hours. These areas have been hit by repetitive showers during the last 24 hours, and additional rainfall may result in flooding problems. Therefore, will issue a Flood Watch for these areas starting this afternoon through Thursday evening. Abundant moisture and cloudiness will keep lows in the mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. The cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Thursday high temperatures in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 213 PM Wednesday... Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of Helene move onshore and northward towards the region, eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Main track of the low still looking to be just to our west. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains and southern zones. In addition, strong gusty winds will develop, owing to tight pressure gradient and strong winds aloft, particularly along ridges. Heaviest QPF will be across the mountains and far southern zones, with parts of WV lowlands looking to potentially suffer from downslope effects/lighter QPF. Could foresee wind and water headlines across far south with future packages. Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage Friday evening into the first part of Saturday as Helene becomes absorbed into upper low across Lower MS Valley, and rotates northwest of the area briefly. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again later Saturday into Sunday as the low slowly drifts east across the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low continues to depart eastward, followed by a front on Tuesday. Cooler and drier weather looks to take hold by mid week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 233 PM Wednesday... Tricky forecast amid general guidance plummeting restrictions to LIFR across the board. Followed closer the CONSShort solution having MVFR ceilings developing across the lowlands, and IFR or worse along the eastern mountains for tonight. Any shower or storm across the lowlands tonight could momentarily reduce restrictions to IFR/LIFR along their path. Low confidence forecast due to uncertainty tracks of upper low and associated passing shortwaves. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extend of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H M L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H L H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L L H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in showers of storms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ033. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ