Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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295 FXUS61 KRLX 250703 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... The focus today will be on when thunderstorms start to infiltrate the area. The current thinking is that the beginning of the morning should be quiet, but things will start to ramp up with the instability on the rise and along with abundant wind shear which will allow for thunderstorm activity to take place through the early to mid/late afternoon. Then thunderstorm potential should wane until at least tonight where storms could continue to ignite along the frontal boundary that is quasi-stationary to our west. A closed upper low will move into the region and setup along the boundary and help support the boundary and consequently support more shower and storm activity by introducing more energy and vorticity into the equation. Not seeing any opportunity for breaks in cloud coverage to support more instability equating to stronger thunderstorms but one cannot rule that out. However, the forecast keeps us under overcast skies with showers on and off throughout the daytime, therefore temperatures will only reach seasonable today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Shower and storm chances continue to peruse the area on Thursday as moisture streams up the Appalachian mountains. This is in conglomeration of an upper level low parked to our west and what is forecast to become Hurricane Helene making landfall along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Best chances for precipitation will be south of the I-64 corridor during the day Thursday, but is expected to stretch farther north on Friday as Helene lifts up through the Mississippi Valley and becomes absorbed by the upper level low. Rain potential splits over the area late Friday night as Helene`s remnants becomes fully ingested by the other nearby disturbance. Precipitation becomes more contained to the center of circulation, progged to be closer to western Kentucky during this time. A tail of moisture stemmed along a cold front will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday night, with this concentration of showers venturing eastward away from the area. This places the CWA in a bit of a rain shadow and limiting shower and storm chances late Friday night and into the weekend. Latest projected storm total accumulation paints two to three inches across the southern coalfields and up the mountains and into parts of the central lowlands with this event. North of I-64, a crestfallen forecast of only a half an inch to an inch of rain is expected to fall from Wednesday through Friday in the midst of our historic drought. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Low end POPs kick off the weekend as the newly enhanced Ohio Valley disturbance remains fairly stationary to our west. This will limit much in the way of showers and storms venturing into the forecast area. The surface low will eventually be nudged eastward late in the weekend into Monday by advancing high pressure out west. Most of the nutritious moisture fueled by the remnants of Helene will have already fallen over areas west of Central Appalachia, leaving behind only lackluster rainfall accumulations as the system travels overhead for the start of next week. After a weak cold front slips through around midweek, high pressure looks to take control of the area again late next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... The sites that are forecast to fog this morning are already getting into lower CIGs such as BKW who is BKN008 currently with gusting to 20KT. Have EKN/CRW getting fogged in as well but their CIGs/VIS have not started to drop. Those sites will fight off the fog by 13/14Z, then endure some borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs through the afternoon with the possibility of seeing some thunderstorms. The rest of the sites will continue to lower in height getting into MVFR for the afternoon with the chance of some thunderstorm activity. By evening thunderstorm potential will wane and those borderline CIGs will still be around until fog starts to impact most sites for the overnight. The frontal boundary to our west is quasi-stationary, therefore the possibility of shower activity overnight will exist going into tomorrow morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. Location, timing and intensity of low stratus/patchy fog overnight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/25/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M L M L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in fog Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JZ