945
FXUS61 KRNK 282316
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
716 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday
pushing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region along with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry and cooler high pressure
will build in behind this front for Thursday and Friday with below
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 705 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

   - Isolated showers this evening

Getting a few showers as far east as the foothills thanks to
surface trough along with axis of deep moisture convergence.
Still expect isolated to widely scattered showers, maybe a
rumble of thunder but most will stay dry. Showers fade
overnight, but another shortwave may bring a few toward the
mountains by dawn Wednesday.

Previous discussion...

Two short waves were coming through the northeast United States
long wave trough. The first crosses the region this evening and
the next on Wednesday. A jet streak with each short wave will
provide some upper diffluence and some colder air aloft will
increase lapse rates. Southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany
Highlands are on the southern fringe of the area of lift.
Downslope flow and mid level dry air will keep extent of and
showers and thunderstorms limited east of the Blue Ridge.
Getting deep enough mixing today for some wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph and models were also showing the potential for similar wind
speeds Wednesday afternoon.

The wind backs to the west ahead of the wave Wednesday then
shift to the northwest behind the front by the end of the day.
The air mass behind the front will again low surface dew points,
with DESI indicating a 75-100 percent chance that dew points in
the mountains will be in the 40s by late afternoon Wednesday.

No significant changes to minimum and maximum temperatures needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers in the mountains Wednesday evening and
Thursday, otherwise dry through the period.
2. Below normal temperatures.

A large upper low will be centered over eastern Canada through the
end of the workweek. A shortwave will rotate through the base of the
trough Wednesday night, which may spark some scattered showers in
the western mountains, though this activity will quickly wane after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Another wave traverses the
trough Thursday afternoon, and could bring additional chances of
showers, though most of the shower activity at this time looks to be
much farther east, near coastal VA and NC. The drier airmass over
the region will help to limit any showers in the area. A broad area
of surface high pressure will build in as the trough axis shifts
east of the area by late Thursday and through Friday, which will
keep Friday dry.

The surface high that will become situated overhead builds in from
the north, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. Winds
will be generally northwesterly through the forecast period, but
turn easterly as the high moves in. Below normal temperatures,
northwesterly winds, and lower dewpoints will make it feel cool
for the end of the month. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s,
possibly dropping into the low 40s for the typical cold spots by
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures on a warming trend, and dry weather through most
of the weekend.

2. Rain chances increase next work week.

Surface high pressure will be settled over much of the eastern US
through most of the weekend, moving eastward and offshore by late
Sunday. Mid level flow transitions to more zonal by Sunday, with a
shortwave trough expected to move along it and into the area late in
the weekend, while an area of surface low pressure heads eastward
into the northern Mid Atlantic. Return flow off the Atlantic from
the high as it tracks eastward will increase moisture in the region,
and with the passage of the shortwave, expecting chances for showers
and possible thunderstorms to return to the area by Sunday
afternoon. Chances for afternoon showers and storms continue Monday
and Tuesday, though confidence is lower on timing and coverage,
given the spread in the long range deterministic guidance.

Subsidence from the surface high and ample daytime heating will
start temperatures on a warming trend through the forecast period,
and highs are expected to climb back to seasonal normals, in the 70s
to 80s, and lows in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR expected through the TAF forecast period

A few showers may get close to BCB/DAN in the 00-01z time frame
but overall tracking the path via radar indicates that they will
stay far enough away to keep out of the tafs.

Otherwise VFR with scattered clouds through Wednesday morning.
Another disturbance may bring a few shower/storms toward BLF/LWB
Wednesday but coverage is too low overall to have in the tafs.

The wind backs to the west ahead of the wave Wednesday with some
gustiness to 20 kts possible, then shifts to the northwest
behind the front.

Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon but
low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AB/AMS/WP