Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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080 FXUS63 KSGF 181743 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1243 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week (mid to upper 80s), with near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday. - Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential early to mid next week, with the highest chances on Tuesday. - Unsettled weather may persist through late next week into Memorial Day Weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 This Morning: Clouds are slowly clearing across portions of southern Missouri this morning. As this happens, variable light winds in the vicinity of low-level moisture may support some fog approaching sunrise. In general, hi-res model guidance has backed off over the last 6 to 12 hours on the extent of fog coverage. The general consensus has been focused across portions of northern Arkansas into southern Missouri, before quickly dissipating after sunrise. Areas most likely to see reduced visibilities will be near lakes and rivers or within low- lying areas. This Afternoon-Tonight: Height rises will be on the increase across the central CONUS this afternoon as a ridge builds into the region. 850mb temperatures reach to around 16 to 18 C this afternoon with mostly clear skies. Local climatological research suggests highs in the lower to middle 80s in this regime. Drier conditions prevail across the area as well today, providing a much needed break from recent active weather. Lows tonight drop into the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Sunday: The ridge builds further east over the area on Sunday, as 850mb temperatures reach to 18 to 20C (around 90th percentile of climatology). This correlates to highs in the middle to upper 80s. Confidence remains high on the anomalously warm temperatures, as NBM percentile spreads remain around 2 to 4 degrees. Highs in the upper 80s is anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid-May. The area should remain completely dry through at least Sunday evening. However, cloud cover slowly builds east into the area on Sunday night as strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of central Kansas. Recent guidance suggests that this convection will rapidly decay as it approaches portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night into Monday morning. At this time, we will continue to highlight 20-40% PoPs through late Sunday night into Monday morning, though no severe weather is expected this far east given the lack of a favorable environment. Monday-Wednesday: By Monday, high pressure shifts east of the area allowing southwest flow to develop across the Middle Mississippi Valley. This pattern shift will support a return of shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s persist through Monday and Tuesday before a frontal passage clears the area on Wednesday. This introduces the potential for near record highs early next week (see Climate section below). For Monday, rain chances remain low (10-30%) beyond the weakening activity through Monday morning. This is depicted by a stout cap within the warm sector of a developing low pressure system centered across central Kansas. Breezy southerly winds can be expected on Monday and Tuesday as warm air and moisture advect into the area. By Tuesday, the low lifts through northeast Kansas into Iowa. Ensemble guidance depicts the presence of a strong shortwave sliding through the broad upper-level trough on Tuesday, supporting showers and thunderstorms across the area. The environment appears conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, as ample instability and deep-layer shear are present within the guidance. Additionally, rich moisture funnels into the area characterized by a 40+ knot low-level jet. There is still remaining uncertainties on how the mesoscale features will evolve and will be best resolved as we approach 48 to 72 hours out. This includes the potential storm mode and associated hazards, in addition to exact timing and locations. The SPC continues to highlight the entire area with a Slight (15%) risk for severe storms. This aligns with CIPS Severe Probability Guidance and CSU Machine Learning. An additional threat to monitor will be flooding, as PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.8 over the area, or around the 90th percentile or higher. If there are any training components to this system, excessive rainfall may quickly become a concern. Shower and thunderstorm chances are progged to continue through Wednesday as a secondary shortwave and associated trough and cold front slide through the area. Wednesday`s severe potential remains a bit more unclear with the timing of the frontal passage. Stay tuned for further updates. Thursday-Friday: Behind the frontal passage on Wednesday, highs back off into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This remains around 5 degrees above normal for mid to late May. Overall, ensemble guidance hint at unsettled weather persisting in late next week and Memorial Day Weekend. However, there remains variance among the guidance on the extent of rain chances. It is worth noting that the CPC 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook supports above normal precipitation through late May. .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas of fog may develop through the early morning, reducing visibilities to as low as 2 to 4 mile at KBBG. Visibility reductions around 6 miles at KSGF and KJLN, though confidence is lower on the extent of the fog this far north. Any areas of fog dissipate around an hour after sunrise. Winds light and variable through the morning, becoming predominately southwesterly around 5 knots in the afternoon with minimal cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR sky conditions to prevail through the TAF period despite a weakening cold front that will stall overnight. This will result in variable weak winds. Light fog is expected to develop south of I-44 and mainly east of Highway 65 later tonight into early Sunday. Visibilities will drop to the MVFR over south central MO and possibly into the KBBG area. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Record High Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964 May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 71/1902 May 21: KSGF: 70/1902 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Runnels CLIMATE...Burchfield