762
FXUS64 KSHV 250536
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1236 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

We have extended the current SVR watch a couple of hours and added
our remaining deep east TX Counties with the update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Thunderstorms continue to move over S Arkansas and we have
extended the SVR Watch 303 for another couple of hours until
midnight. Also, we have added our remaining TX Counties as well
ahead of the big push currently. The KSHV radar is tracking a
large cell along I-20 in east TX and we are continuing see good
progressive motion, so flooding may still become an issue for the
rain trained areas briefly, but all of our rivers in the general
path are normal ahead of this push. More to come this evening and
hoping the HRRR is on track with dissipation around midnight.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Troughing will remain in place across the central CONUS as we move
into the long-term portion of the forecast period. At the surface,
an area of low pressure will be centered over the mid-central
CONUS with a cold front extending south from central Kansas into
western Texas. A dryline will also be in place from central
Oklahoma into southwest Texas. This will lead to some thunderstorm
development across east Texas that will traverse through the rest
of our area on Sunday. Right now portions of northeast Texas,
southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma are in a Slight Risk
for strong to severe storms on Sunday. Upper-level trough will
quickly push to the northeast Sunday night into Monday morning
with a decent cold front developing and extending from the Upper
Midwest to north central Texas. This front will eventually push
through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, ushering
in some "cooler" and drier air.

Monday should be the last day that we see Heat Index values reach
the 100 degree mark as the rest of the week will be well below
this mark. Monday will see temperatures climb ahead of the front
into the lower to upper 90s. On Tuesday, the "cooler" air will
begin to filter in behind the front and will be most noticeably
felt across our far northern zones with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the period
with temperatures in the 80s across the region. No major chances
for precipitation to speak of right now in the long term period
however, that is always subject to change.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Southerly winds 5 to 10 knots overnight to increase to around 10
knots on Saturday, diminishing to around 5 knots after 26/00Z.
Ongoing convection to bring TSRA conditions to ELD through 25/07Z
with conditions improving thereafter. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings to
overspread the region overnight, gradually lifting to VFR by mid-
afternoon. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  76  94  75 /  20   0  10  20
MLU  93  73  94  74 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  87  70  90  67 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  91  74  92  73 /  20   0  10  20
ELD  90  71  92  70 /  30   0  10  30
TYR  92  75  93  74 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  94  74  94  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...05