323
FXUS64 KSHV 031953
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Active weather will continue to impact the Four State Region with
yet another round of severe thunderstorms possible through the
evening. This is due to an ongoing synoptic setup (ridging to our
west, troughing to our northeast) allowing for northwesterly flow
to continue channeling disturbances across the Southern Great
Plains into the Four State Region. Including the latest round
expected to arrive through this evening into the night. Given the
conducive enough atmosphere, the SPC has accordingly issued a new
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM CDT. Convection associated
with this disturbance will diminish by tomorrow morning and
temperature maximums/minimums will remain in the lower 90s/low-to-
mid 70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the rest of
the week into the weekend across the Four State Region. The
aforementioned synoptic setup will not change much until ridging
across the Four Corners/West Texas builds eastward into our area
by the weekend. Until then, additional MCSs cannot be ruled out
and are notoriously tricky to catch in their initiation, speed,
and intensity by high-resolution guidance, reducing ideal forecast
certainty. That said, the best windows for more activity will be
on Wednesday and later this weekend as a frontal boundary somewhat
interrupts the best environment for convection between those two
times. Temperature maximums/minimums will remain near-to-above
normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings late this morning is expected to
give way to a low-end VFR ceiling into the afternoon, with several
rounds/areas of convection developing. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected across Deep E TX, with an MCS moving north to south
across northern terminals. Some uncertainty in timing and exact
location will maintain lower confidence with convection at
terminals through the evening, especially with the MCS. Expect a
short period of quiet weather into the overnight period, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR. Overcast conditions will mostly prevent
fog development, but still cannot rule out patches of low vsbys
during this time given expected heavy rain with the MCS/general
convection. Another MCS appears likely early Tuesday morning,
affecting all terminals, but its evolution will be affected by
Monday`s MCS, casting even more uncertainty through the latter
half of the TAF cycle. Winds will remain S/SE thru the period
generally 5-10kts, although temporarily erratic and gusty in and
around convection.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  76  91 /  30  30  10  40
MLU  72  89  73  90 /  50  40  10  50
DEQ  68  85  70  88 /  40  30  30  30
TXK  71  89  72  88 /  50  30  20  40
ELD  69  87  71  87 /  60  40  10  50
TYR  73  90  75  90 /  30  20  10  30
GGG  71  89  74  89 /  30  30  10  40
LFK  74  91  76  93 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...23