773
FXUS01 KWBC 250706
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Valid 12Z Sat May 25 2024 - 12Z Mon May 27 2024

...Dangerous severe weather threat forecast across parts of the
central/southern Plains through tonight before the potential for
strong storms shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys on
Sunday...

...Extreme fire weather expected for south-central New Mexico with
critical fire weather throughout much of the southern Rockies/High
Plains today...

...Simmering heat continues across South Texas, the Gulf Coast,
and southern Florida through Memorial Day...


The start of this Memorial Day weekend will feature yet another
round of severe weather impacting the central United States as the
next storm system strengthens across the central Plains. A
textbook Great Plains severe weather setup is expected as a warm
front lifts to the central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley
while a sharp dryline extends south of the low into the southern
Plains. Discrete supercells are anticipated to develop this
evening in response to an ejecting shortwave out of the Rockies as
aforementioned surface boundaries provide a focus for developing
thunderstorms. A few supercells may be capable of intense
tornadoes, with giant hail and destructive winds also expected. By
tonight, thunderstorms are expected to merge into clusters and
potentially bow echos as they push eastward towards the Ozarks.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5)
for severe thunderstorms in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and far
southwest Missouri. Additionally, storms are expected to contain
intense rainfall rates that could lead to scattered instances of
flash flooding from the central/southern Plains to the
mid-Mississippi Valley into tonight. The low pressure system and
associated storminess are expected to shift eastward on Sunday
into portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts
are the most likely hazards as a complex of thunderstorms progress
from Missouri to Kentucky, as well as the possibility of flash
flooding, hail, and a few tornadoes. The Memorial Day finale for
this spring storm system will impact the eastern U.S. on Monday as
low pressure swings into the Great Lakes and a strong cold front
extends along the Appalachians. Showers and storms may dampen
outdoor barbecues, while also containing frequent lighting, have
rain, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors should remain
weather aware this holiday weekend and have multiple ways of
receiving warnings.

West of the dryline today throughout the southern High Plains and
southern Rockies will exist extremely critical fire weather
conditions. Low relative humidity, gusty winds, and dry vegetation
could lead to any newly formed fires to spread rapidly. Red Flag
Warnings span throughout all of New Mexico, southeast Arizona,
western Texas, and the western Oklahoma Panhandle.

The temperature outlook for this weekend includes above average
temperatures leading to a summer-like feel for much of the eastern
U.S., Mid-South, and central/southern Plains as heat also begins
to build back into the West by Memorial Day. Cooler temperatures
are forecast to remain over the Rockies, Northwest, and
north-central United States. Heat will reach oppressive levels
across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida, with
heat indices into the triple digits and the potential for daily
record highs. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across
South Texas due to heat indices rising to around 115 degrees,
which could be dangerous for those spending extended amounts of
time outdoors.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$