Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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345 FXUS62 KTAE 262119 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 519 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hurricane Helene is now a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Helene is still forecast to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend as a major hurricane this evening and inflict catastrophic damage to the area. For the latest on Hurricane Helene and its local impacts, please see the latest Hurricane Local Statement. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Generally warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through the next week after Helene exits the region. A stalled front to the southeast may allow for a few showers and storms across the waters and far southeastern portions of the area, but even then coverage is expected to be fairly sparse. Next week another cold front is forecast to push through the area, prolonging the warm and dry conditions even longer. Highs are generally forecast in the 80s to near 90, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (21Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Portions of the Tri-State area have seen CIGS scatter out this afternoon, predominantly to the east near the Georgia where rainfall is currently lighter. However, conditions are still expected to deteriorate this evening as Hurricane Helene makes landfall in the Big Bend later tonight. KECP and KDHN, while relatively distant from Helene, can still expected to see wind gusts up to 40 knots at times. KTLH, KVLD and KABY fall closer to Helene`s path, and thus could see winds to hurricane force. Heavy rainfall with this system will also bring CIGS/VIS down to IFR levels. Conditions begin to improve after midnight/2am as Helene pushes north away from the Tri-State area. VFR conditions are expected to return early Friday morning, with gusty west/southwest winds expected during the day. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 At 11 AM EDT Thursday, the center of Hurricane Helene was located about 330 miles south-southwest of Saint Marks Florida, over the southeast Gulf. Helene will move north-northeast across the eastern Gulf today, rapidly strengthening to a major hurricane before making landfall along the Big Bend Coast this evening. Helene will quickly move inland on Friday, so conditions will improve over the waters. Gentle to moderate southwest to westerly breezes will prevail this weekend, as a large area of low pressure spins over the Lower Mississippi Valley. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hurricane Helene is forecast to push through the region later today and tonight, bringing widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall. In the wake of Helene, drier conditions are expected Friday through the weekend. However, high dispersions are expected as breezy transport winds remain over the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Widespread flash flooding will be possible today and tonight as Hurricane Helene pushes through the area. There is a High Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC, and a Flood Watch is in effect. Flash flooding is already ongoing from pre-event rainfall across the FL Panhandle. Already saturated areas will be even more susceptible to flooding from the extreme rainfall rates expected with Hurricane Helene. Rapid rises on area rivers are expected with Hurricane Helene as well, and some rivers and streams are already well on their way to minor or moderate flood stage with recent rainfall and forecast rainfall from Helene. Event rainfall totals could reach as high as 15 to 18 inches in some areas. If realized, these totals would create catastrophic flooding. If you live in a flood-prone area, there are still a couple of hours left to move to higher ground. Of course, if you are under an evacuation order please follow the advice of local officials. Once tropical storm conditions begin later this afternoon and evening, it will quickly become unsafe to be on the roads. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 84 69 86 / 100 10 0 0 Panama City 71 83 74 86 / 80 0 0 0 Dothan 65 81 65 84 / 100 20 0 0 Albany 68 81 66 84 / 100 30 0 0 Valdosta 71 85 67 86 / 100 20 0 0 Cross City 76 87 74 87 / 100 10 0 0 Apalachicola 74 83 75 84 / 90 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-034- 108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ007>010-012-108-112. Hurricane Warning for FLZ011-013>019-026>029-034-114-115-118-127- 128-134. Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-114-115-118-127-128-134. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. Hurricane Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ065>069. Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ065-066-068. Hurricane Warning for ALZ067-069. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-770. Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...HGX MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield