Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
736 FXUS62 KTBW 291137 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 737 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 735 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions with light winds this morning become WNW around 8-13 knots this afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all terminals at this time as it appears most rain chances will remain over south Florida away from all the terminals. Winds become light and variable once again overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 In the upper levels, a long wave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern US will gradually deepen through the rest of the week as a shortwave rounds the base of the trough. At the surface, the recent cold front will gradually dissipate as it lingers over the Florida Peninsula today and Thursday, with drier air filling in across the forecast area. This will lead to only isolated afternoon showers or storms expected over southwest Florida each day. Temperatures will remain warm through Friday, with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s over the interior, and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. On Friday, as the upper level trough deepens along the eastern seaboard, a backdoor cold front will move southwest through Florida and stall south of Florida during the weekend and early next week. This will drop temperatures a few degrees to near to slightly above normal levels, and increase atmospheric moisture. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon Friday through early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure will build back into the waters from the north through the rest of the week, then shift east into the Atlantic this weekend. Rain chances will increase Friday through the weekend as a weak cold front pushes south through the waters. Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 95 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 20 GIF 97 72 97 72 / 10 0 10 10 SRQ 94 74 94 76 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 96 66 97 67 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 93 79 94 80 / 0 0 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close