Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
054 FXUS62 KTBW 280730 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 In the upper levels, a couple of shortwaves are rotating around a longwave trough over the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada today. At the surface, this system is pulling a cold front into northern Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will stall out as the upper level trough pulls away. Moisture pooling to the south of this boundary will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then drier air will fill into the area tonight. As the front lingers over the Florida Peninsula during the middle of the week, scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible mainly over southwest Florida Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm through Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s over the interior and low to mid 90s along the coast. Late in the week, another shortwave will swing into the eastern seaboard, deepening the longwave trough and pushing the frontal boundary south into Florida as a backdoor cold front. This will increase atmospheric moisture and bring about higher rain chances Friday through Monday, while also dropping temperatures a few degrees back down to near normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Isolated showers or storms are forecast to move into the Tampa Bay area around sunrise this morning, with a chance for some MVFR ceilings along with the showers. Showers will shift east and inland through the morning and afternoon, with KLAL having the highest chances of being impacted by showers or storms...but brief disruptions cannot be ruled out at other terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A weak front will push into the northern Gulf of Mexico today and stall out north of the coastal waters, leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Drier conditions will fill in Wednesday and Thursday, before the frontal boundary finally pushes south through the waters Friday through the weekend bringing another increase in rain chances. Outside of thunderstorms, winds and seas are forecast to remain below headline criteria through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Relative humidity is not forecast to not drop to critically low levels this afternoon. Drier air will fill on Wednesday, with relative humidity dropping below 35 percent across widespread areas, but 20 foot wind speeds will not be high enough to trigger Red Flag Warnings. High dispersion indices are forecast this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 78 95 76 / 30 0 10 0 FMY 94 76 96 75 / 30 10 30 10 GIF 95 74 97 72 / 40 10 10 0 SRQ 91 77 94 75 / 30 0 10 0 BKV 92 70 96 66 / 40 0 10 0 SPG 90 81 94 79 / 30 0 10 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming