Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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028 FXUS65 KTFX 221936 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 136 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Fairly benign conditions will be in place across the Northern Rockies through mid week. Temperatures will remain above average through at least Thursday, with Wednesday looking the warmest. Winds will be breezy at times, though do not look to be overly impactful. && .DISCUSSION... Through Thursday... A shortwave approaching within westerly to northwesterly flow aloft will bring a noon-zero chance for a shower across Central and North-central Montana tonight into early tomorrow, otherwise the only impacts felt from this system will be a breezy rest of the day and increased cloud cover heading into tonight. Monday through Wednesday an upper level ridge will build in from the west, allowing temperatures to climb even further above average. Wednesday looks like the warmest day (Greater than 50% chance for highs at or above 85 F across much of the plains) before the ridge is broken down heading into Thursday. As the ridge breaks down, winds look to become increasingly gusty Thursday and Friday. The chance for a 50 mph gust at Cut Bank is between 30 and 40% Thursday and Friday, with chances increasing closer to the Rocky Mountain Front. Overall the week looks dry, with just a slight chance for rain along the Rocky Mountain Front at times late-week. Saturday and Sunday... Ensemble guidance gives little confidence on how the pattern will evolve next weekend. There is confidence in troughing off the Pacific coast of Canada, but confidence quickly decreases as to how quickly this troughing moves on shore as well as its north/south positioning. Scenarios range from warmer and drier condtions persisting to a cooler and wet latter half of the weekend. -AM && .AVIATION... 22/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 2218/2318 TAF period; however, mid- and upper level cloudiness will continue to increase over the Central and North Central Montana through 00z Monday and across Southwest Montana between 00-06z Monday. While an isolated shower or two are possible between 03-12z Monday across the Northern Rockies, little to no precipitation is expected to reach the surface given dry air in the low levels. Breezy and gusty west to northwest winds at the KCTB and KGTF terminals, with gusts of 25- 35kts this afternoon, will gradually decrease beyond 00z Monday. Mountain wave turbulence and instances of low level wind shear will be possible over the next 12-18 hours. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 51 74 48 83 / 20 10 0 0 CTB 47 71 49 82 / 10 10 0 0 HLN 52 73 49 82 / 10 10 0 0 BZN 42 72 43 79 / 10 10 0 0 WYS 32 65 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 41 69 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 49 73 48 81 / 20 10 0 0 LWT 47 67 46 77 / 10 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls