Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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479 FXUS63 KTOP 260728 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 228 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog burns off with sunrise this morning. - Dry weather continues with near to slightly above normal temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Early this morning, a mid-level ridge stretched from the Desert Southwest to the Northern Plains with a stagnant closed low spinning over the mid-Mississippi Valley. While the main weather focus is on Hurricane Helene as it intensifies in the Gulf, benign weather continues across the forecast area with the aforementioned ridge in place. Clear skies and calm surface winds have allowed for some patchy fog to develop, mainly in river valleys and low-lying areas. This fog will burn off shortly after sunrise with a carbon-copy of yesterday expected today. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s. As Helene tracks north, it will be ingested by the closed low over the lower Mississippi Valley and nudge the ridge back towards the Four Corners. While some mid and high clouds are likely to overspread the area from this system, any precipitation will stay to our east. Little change to the overall airmass will take place through Monday, keeping temperatures slightly above normal with highs in the 80s. A shortwave diving southeast across the northern CONUS into the Great Lakes will shunt a cold front through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Frontal passage is expected to be dry given a lack of moisture, but temperatures will be knocked down 10-15 degrees on Tuesday. The cool down is short-lived as southerly flow returns on Wednesday and temperatures rise back to near-normal values. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Conditions favor shallow fog again at KTOP/KMHK through just after sunrise before fog burns off. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light ESE winds through the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan