Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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224 FXUS63 KTOP 231927 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday. - Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper-level trough and associated light rain has been slow to exit the area today. Light showers continue across portions of far east central Kansas. CLoud cover has also been stubborn across eastern Kansas. All of this activity will finally exit later this evening. We should see some brief clearing tonight before another trough quickly enters the area. A couple vort maxes will swing through northeast Kansas tonight into tomorrow. The first one may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the area (~20% chances) but the better chance of precipitation will come with a passing cold front late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of CAPE should be enough for some thunderstorms to develop with the passing of the front and dynamic upper-level system. The next focus turns to this weekend as the remnants of a tropical system may pivot northwestward near our area. There is considerable uncertainty as to how far west it will make it and how progressive the overall pattern will be, but at least portions of the Midwest and maybe even the central Plains could see some good rain this weekend. What is more certain is the temperature profile through the week. A very pleasant week is expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A VFR cloud deck will hang tough through the day and into the evening. A cold front will move through tomorrow late morning to early afternoon and may bring some rain or even an isolated thunderstorm to the area, but confidence in coverage and timing is too low at this time to mention in the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones