626
FXUS63 KTOP 250732
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
232 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible this morning.

- Precipitation chances continue to diminish for the late week
  and weekend.

- Near normal temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Above normal mid/upper level height anomalies will remain in place
over the central and northern Rockies over the next several days as
Tuesday`s upper trough and the developing Gulf system linger over
the Deep South. This keeps a rather tranquil pattern in place with
little chance for precipitation and fairly steady temperatures.
Surface high pressure centered over western Kansas combined with
evening clearing and some areas of wet ground may give rise to some
shallow fog through sunrise this morning. Will monitor satellite
and observation trends for inclusion but the chance for an Advisory
is rather low (15%).

The track of the conglomeration of the upper lows to the southeast
continues to trend farther east in recent model runs and the chances
for precipitation in the NBM continue to fall in kind. The next
significant system of note appears to be a modified Pacific cold
front that passes in the Monday to Monday night timeframe which
brings temperatures down noticeably, though far from impacting
those with sensitive vegetation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Main concern is potential for ground fog formation. All sites
would have some concern given higher evening rainfall amounts at
MHK and FOE while TOP is favored climatologically. Crossover
temperatures are expected to be passed soon with a strong
inversion likely. Have included MIFG at this point and will
watch trends. VFR conditions are expected otherwise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage