Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
733 FXUS65 KVEF 210805 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 105 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Aside from a few lingering light showers in Northwest Arizona, dry conditions will resume today as high pressure slowly rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will climb several degrees above normal though next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Monday. Closed low which brought widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the region on Friday is now shifting into northern Arizona, with lingering precipitation noted at this hour across central Mohave County around the Kingman vicinity. The brunt of this activity will wane through the remainder of the night as the strongest dynamics become refocused across northern Arizona by daybreak. Still cant rule out a stray shower across eastern Mohave County through this afternoon, but on the whole, dry conditions are expected as more stable air moves in from the west. Meanwhile, temperatures today near or slightly below seasonal averages. Sunday and Monday, heights will slowly climb under a weak northwesterly flow aloft between the remains of our closed low well to the east, and a weak low off the coast of California. Under this pattern, dry conditions will continue, with a slow warming trend back closer to seasonal normals Sunday, and slightly above normal to start the work week Monday. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. Models have come back into very good agreement, showing solutions very similar to runs from 48 hours ago. This gives some support to the thought that yesterday`s runs were a one-off, but with such large run to run changes, confidence is average. As was the case Thursday morning, the main message appears to be unseasonably warm, dry, and tranquil weather for our area through the period as high pressure parks overhead. Yesterday`s runs showed a cutoff low off the southern California coast and also an amplifying low over the Four Corners; both of these features are de-emphasized today, with the cutoff low weaker than before and the Four Corners low farther east. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will be light (less than 8 knots) across the valley today with variable directions through the morning before becoming established from the southeast (120 degrees to 160 degrees) after 19Z. As the afternoon progresses, winds should gradually turn more to the south before becoming southwest by 02Z. Light and variable winds will return overnight and continue through Sunday morning. The departing area of low pressure that brought the showers and storms on yesterday will keep a few clouds with bases AOA 12kft into the afternoon before skies clear. Clear skies will then persist overnight and Sunday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...The area of low pressure that brought the showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday will depart today. A few lingering showers will still be possible through 18Z over eastern Mohave County, but area TAF sites should not see any additional precipitation. Light winds of less than 12 knots will follow typical diurnal direction trends through this evening. KDAG will see winds increase out of the southwest to 10 to 15 knots with a few higher gusts after 03Z, while all other sites remain less than 10kts into Sunday morning. Skies will clear by evening and stay clear through Sunday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Outler LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter