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155
FXUS61 KCAR 241910
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
310 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight...crest
over the area Saturday...then slide east of the region on
Sunday. Low pressure will approach Sunday night and track
northwest of the area Monday into Tuesday. A cold front crosses
the area on Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Cold front exits east of the area through this afternoon and
into early evening, with any remaining shower chances ending
early this evening. Clouds also decrease tonight, though a few
low to mid level clouds could persist this evening in the north.
Airmass tonight will be much cooler. Lows tonight should be
generally in the 40s, with a few upper 30s possible in the
normally colder spots in the north/northwest. The center of the
high pressure tonight will still be just to our west, which will
limit full decoupling and should allow it to stay just warm
enough for no frost.

Saturday is looking like a quiet, pleasant day with high
pressure over the region. Highs will be around 70 with mostly
sunny skies and all the mugginess gone. No rain chances. There
will be a bit of a NW breeze gusting around 20 mph.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Late Saturday night into early Sunday, a weak system moving from
west to east grazes the southern part of the area with a chance
of showers. Sunday afternoon looks generally dry with just a
small (20 percent) chance of showers. Partly cloudy skies, light
winds, low relative humidity, and highs in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday night into Monday, then next system begins to approach
from the west with increasing clouds and wind become southerly.
Rain could begin in western portions of the area Monday
afternoon, but will likely hold off until Monday evening.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A large low pressure system is expected to move into the region
Monday night. The initial warm front should bring some light
showers in the early night, then heavier rain through the rest
of the night. Models are in much better agreement with the track
and timing of the system. However, by Tuesday models are
inconsistent with the timing and track of center of the
occlusion. The Canadian keep showers in the area through the
rest of the week while the Euro and GFS have occasional showers,
but mostly inactive. Decided to keep low end chance showers for
the rest of the week. Expect near normal temps for this period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
Shower activity mid to late afternoon is isolated to scattered
in nature, with generally VFR. Shower activity will end
everywhere by about 0z. Intermittent MVFR ceilings are possible
from PQI N from about 22z to 4z, but kept TAFs predominant low
VFR. Otherwise, VFR throughout for tonight into Saturday. Winds
SW 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts will be shifting to W/NW this
afternoon and remaining gusty. However, winds decrease to around
5 kts from the NW tonight, then increase to about 10 kts from
the NW during the day Saturday, with gusts 15-20 kts.


SHORT TERM:
Sat Night-Sun Night...VFR with light winds.

Monday...Generally starting VFR, with possible MVFR developing
late in the day. SE wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

Monday night...IFR in rain, fog and low clouds. S wind 10-15
kts.

Tuesday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR late. S wind
5-15 kts.

Tue night-Wed...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SW winds 5-10 kts
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft levels, though winds
will be up to 15-20 kts at times.


SHORT TERM: Next likelihood of small craft winds and seas comes
late Monday into Tuesday, with a SE wind and swell ahead of an
approaching low pressure system.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Foisy/LaFlash
Marine...Foisy/LaFlash