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537
FXUS65 KREV 272048
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
148 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Warm and generally dry weather prevails through the week. Above
average temperatures continue, except during mid-week when
seasonal to below average temperatures are expected due to a cold
front passing through the area. Low chances for isolated showers
and thunderstorms persist today and tomorrow afternoon for the
Sierra, northeast California and far western Nevada.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Upper level ridge remains in place giving us more warm and
generally dry weather. Afternoon temperatures continue to be about
5 to 10 degrees above normal for late May. Even though a ridge is
in place, we have enough instability for the development of
showers and a few thunderstorms. Per the HREF members the best
chances for storms remain in the Sierra (from Lake Tahoe to Mono
Co), and Lassen Co. this afternoon. However, the chances are
15-25% Sierra and 10-15% for Lassen Co. Adjacent areas over far
western NV may see some precipitation, but chances remain at 10%
or less. Tomorrow afternoon there is another slight chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over northern Lassen,
the Surprise Valley, far north Washoe and southern Mono counties.
Although chances are better for the northern areas ahead of an
upper level system approaching the region. Winds remain from the
west and west-southwest through tomorrow with gusts up to 20-25
mph today, and up to 30 mph Tuesday.

By Wednesday, an upper level trough swings from the Gulf of AK
into the PacNW. This system stays quite north, so we will not see
any significant impacts. However, the cold front associated to
this system brings slightly cooler temperatures Wed-Thur with near
seasonal temps. Plus our winds will veer to the north and
northwest with winds between 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-35 mph.

Ensemble model data suggests a gradual warm up as the flow
becomes more quasi-zonal towards the end of the week and through
the weekend. NBM guidance is hinting at some 90s possible for
western NV valleys this weekend. Portions of Mineral, Churchill
and Pershing counties have a 10-40% chance of reaching 90F on
Friday, and the probability increases on Saturday. Meanwhile,
Reno has only a 10-15% chance of reaching 90F. So, most likely
staying in the upper 80s through the weekend.

-Crespo
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&&

.AVIATION...

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VFR conditions continue through tomorrow. Low chances for
isolated SHRA/-TSRA (10-20%) for the mountains, and less than 15%
for far western NV this afternoon. Lower chances for SHRA/-TSRA
are expected tomorrow afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near -TSRA. Generally light and VRB winds during the AM and
overnight hours. However, W to WSW winds prevail in the PM hours.
Wind gusts up to 20 kts this PM, but stronger gusts are expected
tomorrow between 20-30 kts.

-Crespo
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$