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989
FXUS66 KSTO 281959
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1259 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and dry weather with breezy north winds bring locally
elevated fire conditions midweek. Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and
Friday across the Valley and adjacent foothills with widespread
mid to upper 90s forecasted.
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.DISCUSSION...
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Afternoon satellite depicts another beautiful day across Northern
Ca with clear skies and relatively quiet weather observed.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s in the Valley
with 80s and upper 70s across our foothills. Onshore flow
continues through this evening, so breezy west winds near the
Delta may gusts up to 20-25 before tapering down overnight.

Our shift in weather pattern occurs as an upper level trough
moves eastward through the Pacific NW by late Wednesday morning.
This will be replaced with upper level ridging in the Pacific and
strengthen northerly flow over the area. This will help see
temperatures warm throughout the Valley each day after today and
by Thursday see large swaths of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley.
Thursday and Friday will see afternoon highs in the mid to upper
90s, hottest across the foothills and northern Sacramento Valley.

Additionally, north to west winds increase to 15-20 MPH Wednesday
morning and continue through Thursday morning along I-5 westward.
The morning hours will see the strongest winds with a great areal
extent of gusty winds on Thursday as winds extend into Yolo
County. This will be a low end wind event as probabilities of over
35 MPH only exist on Thursday with a meager 10-25% chance. Winds
weaken after Thursday with lingering north winds along I-5 and
light Delta breeze Thursday night into Friday morning.

Onshore flow returns late Friday afternoon into Saturday that
will help cool the Valley several degrees for later this weekend.
Be sure to check the latest forecast before traveling and take
appropriate measures like adequate hydration and finding areas of
shade to beat this week`s heat!
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.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...

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On Saturday, we will see a slight lowering of daytime high
temperatures, as an offshore trough will flatten the heights and
promote more onshore flow to the area once again. Generally, high
temperatures will be mid 80s to mid 90s across the Valley, with
the cooler high temperatures in the Delta. Similar temperatures
and conditions are expected on Sunday. As we move into the next
week, the upper level pattern will become more zonal, with
ensembles and Cluster Analysis in relatively good agreement of
this pattern manifesting. This pattern will allow for afternoon
high temperatures to once again climb into the mid and upper 90s
for the Valley, with mid 70s to mid 80s for the higher elevations.
Widespread moderate HeatRisk on Tuesday, with isolated areas of
Major HeatRisk are currently forecast.
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.AVIATION...


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VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local southwest surface wind gusts
20-30 kts vicinity west Delta, areas of southwesterly 15-20 kts
in the Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra (northwesterly across
the northern San Joaquin Valley) after 22Z. Northerly winds
develop across the northern Sacramento Valley reaching KRDD/KRBL
between 23-01Z today, with gusts to 20-27 knots. Northerly winds
will continue across the northern Sacramento Valley overnight,
increasing after sunrise (after 14-15Z) and spreading further
south, where north to northwest wind shifts will reach all TAF
sites tomorrow. Strongest winds will remain in the north-central
Sacramento Valley where gusts to 25-30 knots will peak tomorrow
morning-early afternoon. Elsewhere, expect winds of 10-15 knots
and gusts to 20-25 knots Wednesday.
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.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$