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FXUS64 KMRX 260522
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The flood risk continues overnight with this PRE rain event
producing heavy rainfall rates across the Southern Appalachians.
The highest flooding risk over the next 24 hours will be across
the mountains and western North Carolina. In the immediate term,
we`ll be monitoring flooding potential around Roan Mountain and
the Doe River basin as heavier rain and thunderstorms train over
these locations.

The wind risk for Thursday night into Friday is more uncertain. We
have high confidence in 40+ mph wind gusts on Friday across the
region with a greater than 80% chance of these values occurring.
We also have high confidence (80%+) in 60+ mph winds across the
mountains, so we`ve upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind
Warning for these mountain zones. Wind potential across the
remainder of the region will depend significantly on the intensity
of Hurricane Helene at landfall. There is growing concern that
some areas of the valley could see some 50 to 60+ mph wind gusts
on Friday morning which would result in widespread downed trees
and power outages. However, this is still a low probability
contingency outcome that is above the current forecast. With the
range of potential wind across the remainder of the area, did not
have the confidence to go with a High Wind Warning or an Advisory
at this time, so we`ve continued with the High Wind Watch with a
mention of wind gusts up to 60 mph. As the intensity of Helene
becomes better understood over the next 12 hours, this will likely
help us refine the wind forecast across the valley.

Keep in mind that regardless of deterministic wind speed forecasts
or products, there is a high likelihood of 40+ mph wind gusts
area- wide on Friday. With already saturated soils, downed trees
and scattered to widespread power outages are likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain expected with possibly several inches of
accumulation in association with a nearly stalled meridional
frontal boundary over middle Tennessee and Hurricane Helene. Flood
Watches in effect. As well as Tropical Storm Watches for Clay and
Cherokee County North Carolina.

2. Winds from Hurricane Helene will begin to ramp up with time
Thursday.

Discussion:

Rains that we have experienced actually have nothing to do with
Hurricane Helene. A pseudo cold front turned stationary, as well
as being sandwiched between a closed upper low and ridging over
the Atlantic, is drawing anomalous moisture northward. Since
yesterday, many areas along the I-40/I-81 corridor have recorded
rainfall in the 1 to 3 inches range. And this will just keep
adding up. It is imperative that everyone heeds all warnings and
listens to any emergency officials orders if roads end up closing
or creeks overfill their banks, for example. Rain will not start
to taper off from Helene until later Friday. So it is very
important to NOT drive through flooded roads. It only takes about
6 inches of water to lose control of a vehicle and experience
stalling. Once a foot of water is reached, it is enough to float a
vehicle, thus carrying it away. The number one impact from pre-
Helene and Helene rains is definitely the risk of flooding.
Through the end of the short term period or late Thursday, similar
amounts will be recorded mostly east of the plateau. Although most
of our area will be under a slight risk for flash flooding
according to WPC, very eastern/southeastern parts of our forecast
area will be under a moderate to high risk for flash flooding
through early Friday. A high risk for flash flooding is very
seldom issued by the WPC unless they are confident it warrants it,
so hopefully that alone stresses the importance of this event
to come.

As of this morning, Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Clay
and Cherokee County, North Carolina. A High Wind Watch will cover
the rest of the forecast area beginning Thursday night. Mountain
peaks will be gusting in the 30`s by the end of the short term,
while the valley will be increasing into the teens and 20`s for
gusts. The pressure gradient will tighten as well as the LLJ over
the mountains. This will help keep the heaviest precip to our
south and on the North Carolina side, so a rain-shadow will form
over northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Chances for rain
will be less in this area as compression warming on the leeward
side of the mountains inhibits heavier rainfall amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Flooding potential remains high as heavy, tropical downpours
affect the area Thursday night into Friday.

2. Winds will be high in the mountains, but those areas are used to
strong winds. Of more concern is the potential for widespread strong
winds in the TN valley late Thu night into mid Fri morning.

Discussion:

The main focus of the long term forecast remains centered on
Hurricane Helene and it`s path after landfall. As such, the long
term discussion will focus heavily on that.

Thursday night Helene will come ashore along the coast of the
Florida panhandle. Afterwards, it will race northward through
Georgia before turning westward in the general vicinity of the
TN/AL/GA border area and being absorbed into a large upper low over
the Arklamiss. The two main concerns for all of this heavy rains
and the flooding rain potential, and then high winds.

First of all, let`s address the heavy rain potential. A precursor
rain event (PRE) has been ongoing today, setting the stage for
additional flooding issues during the long term. We`ve had plenty of
rain along/east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors today (4-5" in spots)
so there will be saturated soils to work with. As the low level wind
field across the southern Appalachians turns increasingly
southeasterly, and the winds ramp up, some rain shadowing will
occur, which will lead to some downtrends in rainfall totals.
However, by 12z Fri or thereabouts the broader precip shield
associated with Helene will overcome this and overspread the entire
CWA. Additional heavy rains and resulting flash flood threats will
likely be confined to the southern parts of the area, but given the
low flash flood guidance we will have in place (especially across
the north) I chose to go ahead and extend the entirety of the Flash
Flood Watch through 18z Friday rather than have two segments that
end at different times. Do not believe the lull in rainfall due to
downslope flow will be long enough to lessen the impacts of
additional rain with the core of Helene. WPC is still putting out
event total rainfall amounts in the southern valley that are in the
3-5" range, and guidance continues to support rainfall amounts in
excess of 7-10" in portions of Cherokee and Clay counties.

On the wind front, the current forecast path for the center of the
remnant circulation of Helene is forecast to move northwestward
through roughly the southern plateau or Chattanooga area. Now, this
isn`t the same as the eye of a tropical storm making landfall. But
the point of bringing this up is that if you believe some guidance,
there should be roughly a 12-18mb surface pressure gradient between
the TN/GA line and the northern parts of our Virginia counties
sometime between roughly 3am and 9am Friday morning. Looking at the
low level wind fields with this system, there will be a widespread
area of +50kt within the lowest 4,000 to 6,000 ft of the atmosphere.
High winds in the mountains seem beyond a lock at this point and
would not be surprised if we see some gusts to 70mph or more in some
of our more wind prone areas. However, the convective nature of this
system coupled with the strong pressure gradient leads me to believe
that the Tennessee valley could see some significant wind gusts
Thursday night into Friday morning. Have gone ahead and hoisted up a
high wind watch for all of our Tennessee and Virginia counties,
advertising gusts to around 50 mph in the valley and up to 70mph in
the higher terrain. Will let the upcoming night shift make the call
on what, if anything, needs to be an advisory vs. warning. Lastly,
the NC counties were left out of this decision as a Tropical Storm
Watch was put out for those counties in accordance with North
Carolina partners. As far as gusts are concerned, 50 and 70 mph for
low elevation and higher terrain respectively, still applies I
believe.

By Friday evening, the remnants of Helene will have lifted north of
the I-40 corridor through middle/western TN as it`s absorbed (or
more accurately Fujiwara`s around) the upper low over the Arklamiss
area. We should see dry conditions in place for much of the area
Friday evening into early Sat. However that upper low to our west
will begin meandering east on Sat, bringing additional rainfall to
the area Sat night into Sun. This rainy pattern continues into early
next week before the low shifts east of our area some time next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Will see fluxuating conditions, with all categories likely seen
over the period. Timing of heavier precip and lower conditions is
problematic. Will go with a mainly MVFR/IFR forecast, but it will
be higher or lower at times. Do expect lower conditions in general
at CHA overall, with more time spent in higher categories
(VFR/MVFR) at TRI. Will include a prob30 group for thunder trying
to time the best chances for thunderstorms, but overall
probability of thunder is fairly low and more spread out in time
than can be captured in a 6 hour prob30 group window. Winds will
begin to increase from the northeast and east and become more
gusty later in the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  67  75  64 /  90 100  90  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  66  77  63 /  90 100  90  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  65  75  62 /  90 100  90  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  66  78  61 /  90  90  90  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-North
     Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-
     Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-
     Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West
     Polk.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-
     Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-
     Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
     Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-
     Washington TN-West Polk.

     High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-
     Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
     Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday evening for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...