353
FXAK67 PAJK 242250
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Broad low pressure over the NW gulf continues to
send plentiful rain showers into the panhandle this afternoon.
There are a few pieces of energy that are rotating around the
broad low apparent on satellite imagery. The first is a trough
extending SE from the low across the central and eastern gulf.
There is also a small low that has developed on the front south of
the panhandle to the west of Haida Gwaii that is sending a more
organized area of showers into the southern panhandle late this
afternoon and evening. Winds have also been somewhat breezy today,
but have generally shown a diminishing trend today. Northern Lynn
Canal area still has some gusts to 35 mph, but those should be
diminishing overnight as well.

Generally, showers and winds will be on the diminishing trend
through the next 24 hours. Showers will still be around as onshore
flow continues. However, they will be becoming lesser in intensity
and lower in frequency into Wednesday. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms possible along the NE Gulf Coast NW of Sitka and
SE of Yakutat this evening from some instability associated with
the incoming weak trough, but it is somewhat uncertain if any
lightning will be generated from it. Winds will likewise be on a
diminishing trend through the next 24 hours and should mostly be
15 kt or less by Wednesday morning. Overall generally quiet
weather is expected.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday evening a negatively titled shortwave
trough will rotate around the stationary low in the Gulf, swinging
in a strong surface low into Haida Gwaii. Main difference between
ensemble players for Thursday is in the 500mb heights downstream
of the axis, which will impact the depth of the surface feature
and location. For now, our forecast reflects a 980mb low moving
quickly through Haida Gwaii and Queen Charlotte Sound starting
late Wednesday night. Expect southeasterly winds increasing out
of Dixon Entrance and Portland Inlet, with 25 to 30+ knots of
northerly wind in Clarence Strait. Expect these winds to reach
their peaks, with gale force in Dixon and west coast of PoW,
Thursday afternoon. Elevated winds persist into Friday morning.
Rain is expected but concerns relative to rain forest standards
are minimal, with 24 hour amounts in the region remaining below 2
inches.

Once the trough moves into the Coast Mountains Friday, a ridge
will transit over the Panhandle, bringing a break from elevated
winds and widespread rain into the weekend. Sunday a longwave
trough will lift into the Gulf carrying an assortment of fronts,
wind, and rain with it. Main threat from more extreme outliers
across guidance is the potential for storm force winds. For now
our forecast reflects 30 to 35 knots, stay tuned into the forecast for
updates for Sunday and Monday, there will be changes. Regarding
precipitation, some GEFS and ECWMF members want to bring an AR-4
into the southern region but more than likely we see a moderate
AR-2 with 24 hours totals with 2 to 4 inches Monday into Tuesday,
with the main focus of precip in the central region. Snow levels
are likely to remain at least two thousand feet or more above sea
level.


&&

.AVIATION...Varying flight conditions ranging from low end VFR to
MVFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 3000 to 6000ft and intermittent
vsbys down to 3 to 5 sm within heaviest showers into the early
evening. Shower bands continue to move in overnight and into
Wednesday. Winds diminishing to less than 10kts through Tuesday
evening into the overnight period. Non-impactful LLWS into
Wednesday.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau