214
FXUS61 KALY 261549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1149 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers into the afternoon diminish from northwest to
southeast as a cold front moves across the region. Some periods
of moderate rain are possible south of I-90 this afternoon
ahead of the front. Skies partially clear tonight behind the
boundary resulting in some patchy fog, especially along and
north of I-90. Drier weather returns tomorrow with mostly dry
weather then expected through the weekend. Rain chances will
once again increase by midweek as the next cold front approaches
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 11am, areas of rain showers continue to overspread much of
eastern NY and western New England as GOES16 water vapor imagery
shows our upper level closed parent low slowly tracking through
Ontario with its attendant cold front pressing southeastward
through western NY/the Tug Hill. A jet streak also looks to
develop on the southern periphery of the closed low. Meanwhile,
the overall synoptic pattern across the Eastern CONUS shows a
closed low spinning over the MS Valley with a strong anticyclone
off the Southeast U.S coast while Hurricane Helene tracks
northward through the Gulf towards the Florida panhandle. See
hurricanes.gov for more info on Helene.

This set-up supports strong southerly winds funneling moisture
northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northeast with a
plume of 1 - 1.75" PWATs nosing ahead of the boundary. As such,
latest SPC mesoscale analysis also shows enhanced 925 - 850 hPa
moisture transport vectors directed along and ahead of the
incoming cold front with dew points across of the local area in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. The 12 UTC ALY sounding also shows
impressive PWATs for late September standards at 1.64 inches.
The moisture rich environment ahead of the incoming front
combined with the slow movement of the closed low/boundary will
allow showers to continue developing and spreading across the
region well into the afternoon. It will take until 19 - 21 UTC
before showers finally start to diminish from northwest to
southeast as the front sweeps through, first ending in the
western/southern Adirondacks before showers end in the Capital
Region by the P.M rush hour.

Enhanced upper level divergence in the equatorward entrance
region of the aforementioned jet streak within the moisture
rich environment looks to support some increased rainfall rates
this afternoon into early evening in the eastern Catskills into
the mid-Hudson Valley and Berkshire/Litchfield County. Latest
CAMS support this especially the NAM/HRRR with the HREF
probabilistic guidance showing 60 - 70% chance for >0.50" in
3-hours between 18 and 21 UTC. The boundary slows down as it
presses south of I-90 and becomes oriented west-east. This will
allow showers to linger and continue past sunset into this
evening for the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskill into western
New England before the wind shift boundary catches up and kicks
the showers out of the area by Midnight.

Overall, this beneficial, soaking rain will result in total QPF
amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50" from the Capital District
into the southern/western Adirondacks with 0.50 to 1.00" south
of I-90. High temperatures today will be limited to the low to
mid 60s thanks to widespread cloud coverage and showers but
elevated dew points will keep it feeling muggy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry and warm  conditions expected through the short
term as high pressure takes hold of the area. Latest models do
hint at light rain associated with the outer bands of a
weakening Hurricane Helene lifting north into southern portions
of our fcst area on Saturday and Sunday. Will have to watch
trends as an increase in pops may be necessary both days if
current model trends continue, although much of any
precipitation looks to largely remain south of the Capital
District. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s through
the period with lows in the lower to middle 50s, with low 40s
likely across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Similar to the short term, dry and warm conditions will start
the period as high pressure remains in control and the remnants
of Hurricane Helene spin to our south across the central
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Eventually however,
precipitation chances look to increase by late Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next cold front approaches from the west.
Temperatures will start above normal both Monday and Tuesday
with more seasonal values expected by Wednesday thanks to
increased precipitation chances and associated cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through the morning hours as areas
of showers continue to move ENE across the region. Ceilings are
expected to improve to MVFR by this afternoon with TEMPO IFR
conditions in areas of steadier rain. Showers are expected to
diminish from west to east between 21Z and 03Z. Surface winds
are expected to be less than 10 knots throughout the forecast
period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gitro/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Gitro/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Gitro
LONG TERM...Gitro
AVIATION...Humphrey