543
FNUS53 KAPX 261857
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...No Rain Expected all the way into Monday...

.DISCUSSION...No big changes to the forecast. High pressure across
the region is expected to hold moisture from Hurricane Helene to
our south through Monday. Will likely see patchy ground fog
formation at night into the weekend with very little wind flow.
Low pressure and an associated cold front leads to chances for
showers Monday night into Tuesday. Unseasonably warm daytime
temperatures continue through Monday. Seasonably cooler
temperatures then arrive for Tuesday into Wednesday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-270815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 6 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (373).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the east around
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (401).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....49-54...except 56-61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (377).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (367).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (480).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (437).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-270815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (639).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (45).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (511).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
257 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (583).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (472).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AJS