Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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023 FXUS61 KBGM 240551 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 151 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected into the early morning. While much of the area will be dry Tuesday, additional disturbances will support shower chances Tuesday night through Thursday. The pattern will change in time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 145 AM Update... No major changes to the forecast overnight as overcast skies prevail, with low stratus most common across NEPA and the Southern Tier. Patchy drizzle will continue in these areas as well. 930 PM Update... With the shortwave exiting earlier this evening and the moisture layer becoming shallower, remaining showers diminished quickly. That said, clouds and patchy fog will persist through the night, with some spotty light showers and perhaps some drizzle. Previous discussion... Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before the next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our region gets placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect more moisture into our region kicking off more showers especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Although a chance of showers will still possible before this time frame. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A warm frontal boundary will slowly move through the region Wednesday and Thursday with enough lift and moisture to produce some scattered showers. QPF once again looks on the lighter side with the highest amounts of a half inch or less. Currently, this system looks to move fast enough to prevent deeper tropical moisture from advecting in. A few ensemble outliers do show deeper moisture with heavier and more widespread rain that extends through Friday. The general consensus though is for scattered light showers to end by Thursday night. Highs look to be in the 60`s and 70`s with lows in the 50`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Two low pressure systems look to do an unusual Fujiwara effect across the south later this week into early next week. However, high pressure looks to build across our region throughout most of this time keeping chances for showers to our south. Fairly seasonable with 40`s and 50`s for lows with highs getting into the 70`s for many locations each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low stratus, with MVFR to IFR conditions, will prevail across the Southern Tier and NEPA into the morning hours, with periodic patchy drizzle, especially at higher elevations. ITH appears to be on the edge of the lower cloud deck presently, and stratus is expected to encroach on the terminal over the next couple of hours. However, downsloping SE winds are expected to keep ceilings in the MVFR category. Further north, VFR conditions prevail at SYR and RME, though brief MVFR ceilings will be possible towards dawn. Ceilings will gradually lift/improve through the late morning hours, with most sites improving to VFR by the afternoon. Lower clouds may linger at ELM as a warm front takes shape over western NY/PA. Another round of scattered showers will move through the region late tonight, generally after 04Z. .Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely along with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday. Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP NEAR TERM...ES/MDP/MPH SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MDP/MPH