Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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899 FXUS61 KBGM 260608 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 208 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers are expected across the area overnight as a frontal system moves through the area. Showers will come to an end from west to east on Thursday. High pressure and drier weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 900 PM Update: PoPs were updated once again. The main batch of showers have moved out of the region, though there is a little back building in Oneida County. There is also a patch of drizzle/light rain moving into the Northern Tier of NEPA. Otherwise, most are dry and will be for most of the night. Winds were also touched up with this update. Otherwise, the forecast was doing well. 645 PM Update: The CAMs are indicating that there will be a break in shower activity for the first half of the overnight hours. Looking at radar, there is little to no activity out west, so it seems like the CAMs are indeed onto something. Due to this, PoPs were greatly reduced until around midnight. Then as the frontal system approaches late tonight, PoPs gradually increase into what was previously forecasted. Model guidance does show limited instability during the early morning hours tomorrow, so thunder remains in the forecast for that time period. Minor adjustments were needed to the hourly temps and winds to better match the latest observations. The showers have cooled conditions a little bit more than originally forecasted. With showers clearing out and the added moisture left behind, fog cannot be totally ruled out. However, model soundings are showing strong winds just above the surface, so that will likely prevent much fog from developing. 315 PM Update: Widespread showers have moved in a bit quicker than previously anticipated and therefore made some adjustments to PoPs for the remainder of this afternoon. For the most part, thunderstorms have not been able to develop, so removed mention of thunder for the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. The cutoff low north of the area will drag a warm front through the region tonight, which will result in additional showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall is possible at times, but flooding is not expected. Then the associated cold front slowly moves through the area on Thursday, which will allow showers to slowly taper off from west to east. By the afternoon, areas west of I-81 may be mostly dry, but showers may linger a bit longer east of I-81, especially for Northeast PA to the Catskills. Otherwise, after a cloudy start area-wide, partial clearing is expected from west to east as the cold front moves through. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few lingering showers will be possible across the Poconos- Catskills Thursday evening, but otherwise the rest of the area will be dry as high pressure moves in. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM Update... High pressure drop south out of Canada on Friday, leading to mostly dry conditions. However, models have been trying to sneak some moisture into NE PA Friday evening through Saturday morning. The broad upper low near the mid- Mississippi River valley absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a weak shortwave rotating around this low could come far enough north to produce some spotty showers, but PoPs are generally under 30% through Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights are again mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 240 PM Update... Sunday into Tuesday will be dominated by large ridge of high pressure. This high pressure system should prevent the aforementioned upper low from coming any further north and it exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night. The next chance for any rainfall will come towards the end of the forecast period as a cold front may drop far enough southward to push across Central NY. However, at this time confidence is too low on the timing and position of this front, so have kept PoPs below 50% at this time. If this front does push through the region, expect cool conditions mid week onward with the potential for frost Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Plenty of cloud and a moist southerly flow with spotty showers and drizzle ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to varying conditions from VFR to IFR early this morning, with most sights hovering between MVFR and fuel-alt conditions. Showers are expected to become more widespread in coverage as the frontal boundary moves into CNY, generally between 08-12Z. Showers look to be at their heaviest between 10-15Z today which can lead to IFR or worse visibility at times. Showers are expected to taper off over the CNY terminals by about 18Z, but the cold front may slow down over NE PA before it departs the area, which can lead to some additional showers through the evening. There is the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm through this afternoon, but confidence on where any may occur is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds are expected to shift today from the south-southeast to the north-northwest by the afternoon, but should remain pretty light at most terminals. There is a brief period early this morning at the start of the TAF period through 09-10Z that guidance does support some borderline southwesterly LLWS at SYR, so this has been added. Slowly improving ceilings are expected for most terminals later this afternoon and evening, but if there is enough clearing, then perhaps some patchy valley fog could starting toward the end of the TAF. .Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is possible at KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL SHORT TERM...DK/MPK LONG TERM...DK/MPK AVIATION...DK