Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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781 FXUS63 KBIS 240530 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A gradual warming trend is expected to start Tuesday, bringing widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday. - With the exception of tonight, dry conditions are expected through the rest of the work week going into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers have all but dissipated over western and central North Dakota by the time of this early morning update. Cloud cover is generally light, with a thin deck of high clouds moving over north central North Dakota, and a lingering deck of mid level clouds slowly moving east out of the James River Valley. Otherwise, winds are generally light and west to northwesterly. No updates were needed, as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The line of showers that developed behind the leading front has continued to slowly push eastward, now positioned from Sioux County to western Stutsman County. With the loss of heating after sunset, lightning activity has decreased to zero. These cells should move out of the area over the next few hours, unless they fall apart before they exit. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Showers continue to push their way east through the forecast area this evening. A small line of showers in central North Dakota have intensified a bit, with visible imagery indicating a more tower-like structure to the storms. A few flashes of lightning have been observed with these storms as well. Most short range models have not resolved these storms whatsoever, so the main change for this forecast update was adding in some PoPs as well as thunder with this line of storms as it moves through the area. These are not expected to be strong whatsoever. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Current surface analysis places low over west-central Manitoba with trough dropping down through the Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough passing through the Northern Plains, with ridging over the west coast. Area of light showers affiliated with the surface and upper level trough continue to pass trough our area, but have been gradually diminishing on the back side. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Showers continue to slide to the east, and are expected to exit into eastern North Dakota this evening. The showers have been quite light, with most reports coming in at only a few hundreths. Skies will then clear out overnight with the departure of the showers. Pacific ridge then makes its way eastward over the Rockies and into the plains by mid-week. This will result in a warming trend along with continued quiet weather. By Thursday, most locations should see highs in the 80s, which will be about 15 degrees above normal. A short wave pushes through the ridge late Thursday which may result in a bit of cooling, but right now forecast looks to remain dry. Next chances for precipitation may arrive late in the weekend but models are showing some differences with a solution at this time, so chances remain low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds will remain generally light and out of the west northwest through the afternoon, before becoming very light and variable this evening through the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/Besson DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Adam