976
FXUS63 KBIS 271108 AAB
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
  through the weekend, with temperatures possibly returning
  into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Sunday.

- Breezy to windy conditions possible Sunday and especially on
  Monday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible on Sunday.

- Temperatures could turn cooler next week. Low temperatures
  could dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s, with high temperatures
  forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Limited updates needed this morning. Clear skies and light winds
have brought some cold morning low temperatures to western and
some central portions. A few sites may see these lows dip into
the mid 30s, which may bring some patchy frost. Coverage is not
expected to be widespread enough for any highlight. Otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Look for a dry and mainly clear day today as a surface high
moves to the east and dry westerly flow remains aloft. Light and
variable winds from the surface high will gradually become
southerly, and may be a touch breezy across northwestern
portions. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s, although a few sites could be a touch warmer than currently
forecast. Afternoon RH values will again be low today, and
generally near 20 percent in the west to mid 30s east. Winds
look to be less today, thus critical fire weather conditions are
not expected at this time. Upper level ridge builds back into
the area tonight, bringing light and variable winds. Low
temperatures look to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, while dry and
mainly clear conditions are also expected to continue. A
southwest flow aloft is then expected for Saturday, although a
surface high to our east will bring winds back easterly. The end
result will be slightly warmer temperatures and continued dry
conditions. Afternoon RH values will again be in the 20s west to
30s east, although winds look to be light. Thus critical fire
weather concerns are minimal for Saturday. A mild and dry
Saturday night is then expected with lows in the 50s. A
developing surface gradient could bring the winds back southerly
overnight. Dry conditions could bring low RH recoveries Saturday
night, with 50 to 70 percent max RH generally expected.

A sharp gradient from a developing low to our west could then
bring breezy to windy southerly winds of Sunday. Given strong
mixing and 850 mb winds, blended in some NBM 90th wind for
Sunday. This could bring some near wind advisory winds,
especially on the sustained criteria of 30 mph. Warming
temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s could lower RH values in
the afternoon into the teens and 20s. This combined with the
mentioned strong winds could bring some near critical fire
weather conditions. If more confidence in fuel status can be
gained in the coming days, then perhaps some fire highlights may
need to be considered for Sunday. A strong cold front then looks
to push through Sunday night into Monday. This could bring a few
rain showers across the north as it does so. The main weather
impact will be more strong winds and cooler temperatures. 850 mb
winds once again looked strong, and ECMWF EFI values continue to
be elevated for Monday. Thus blended in some NBM 90th winds for
Monday as well. This blend does give widespread wind advisory
winds and will have to be monitored going forward. Cooler
temperatures will be found for Monday behind this front, with
highs generally in the 60s, with some upper 50s northwest and
some lower 70s southeast. Winds then diminish Monday night as a
surface high moves in. This high combined with cooler post
frontal temperatures could bring lows in the 30s to lower 40s
Monday night into Tuesday. This coincides with our last night of
frost products for the season, thus will need to be monitored.

Clusters show a broad low pattern across mainly Canada with a
flattened ridge pattern across the western and perhaps central
US. How far north and south these features move will impact our
weather for next week. The mean solution keeps North Dakota
generally in a zonal flow pattern keeping more seasonable
temperatures and many dry conditions. This could mean lows dip
into the 30s to perhaps 40s each morning, while highs remain
generally in the 60s. If the ridge shifts more northward there
could be some warmer days, which is currently what is being
forecast on Wednesday. However, more intrusion of the northern
low would keep cooler conditions and perhaps slight chances for
precipitation. Overall the NBM and current forecast represents
the mean solution at this time. This is generally a dry
solution with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
and variable winds will become southerly for most TAF sites
today, with light and variable winds lingering in the KJMS
area. Some breezy winds are possible in the KXWA area. Light
southerly winds are then expected for tonight, becoming light
and variable for some sites. Otherwise, look for mainly clear
skies and dry conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin