Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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377 FXUS63 KDMX 262331 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 631 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Extended period of tranquil and dry weather with above normal temperatures into Monday. - Cooler temperatures arrive by Tuesday but dry conditions persist. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Quiet weather persists across the state this afternoon with ridge axis across the southeast. Otherwise, the dry atmosphere warmed nicely with plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Anticipate the tranquil conditions to persist tonight as the surface ridge begins to actually retrograde as the eastern upper low and Hurricane Helene interact. Patchy fog may once again develop toward daybreak given the light winds and ample radiational cooling although dont anticipate this becoming problematic. The overall pattern is dominated by the large upper low absorbing Helene and holding nearly stationary in the lower Ohio River Valley thorugh the weekend. Iowa remains on the backside of this large circulation with northeast winds but generally clear skies. Some clouds may back into the east third or so of the state during the weekend, but otherwise relatively sunny conditions are expected during the day. Temperatures continue with decent diurnal ranges with a relatively dry airmass in place and limited clouds. A stronger shortwave drops southeast into the Upper Midwest by Monday of next week. The bulk of forcing and associated lift remain well north of Iowa with relatively little moisture in the state. Therefore, the chances of precipitation with this system remains north of the state. However, a decent push of colder air is expected by Tuesday with temperatures dropping to or below normal, if only for a day or two. Warmer air returns quickly into midweek once again ahead of another fast moving shortwave which arrives by late in the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period. However, we continue to monitor trends for any isolated patchy fog around daybreak Friday, but confidence far to low to include any mentions at any one TAF site. Light and variable winds tonight become out of the northeast and increase during the daytime Friday, the strongest winds/gusts in the southeast towards KOTM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...KCM