985
FXUS63 KDVN 261902
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
202 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for rain tomorrow are even lower as winds look to be
  the main local impact from Helene.

- Quiet weather pattern expected in the long term.

-Temperatures this weekend will be warm by late September
 standards and with a slight increase in humidity may feel a tad
 more sticky. Cold front beginning of the week will clear out
 humidity and lead to more seasonable temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is expected to merge with the upper level low south and
east of the area through tomorrow afternoon. Guidance has
continued the trend for keeping the area dry tomorrow. As such,
have removed pops from across the east tomorrow. What will be
more noticeable are increasing clouds along with gusty winds.
Guidance has a near record low sfc pressure just south of us
tomorrow. Have increased winds, but kept them below wind adv
criteria. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on this as we
may see even stronger winds.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

To start the period, the closed low to our southeast eventually
merges with what should be post tropical Helene.  This should stay
south and east of the area.  At the same time, a ridge is expected
to build into our area.  This will lead to temperatures in the upper
70s to low 80s this weekend. Moisture will also build with this and
dewpoints in the low 60s are possible Sunday into Monday.  Monday
night into Tuesday a cold front is expected to swing through the
area, changing the airmass to a more fall-like airmass for next
week.  Dewpoints in the 40s and highs in the 60s look likely Tuesday
on next week.

Did bring winds up in the extended. Strong low pressure (remains
of Helene) will be just south of the area. This will lead to
windy conditions until the low fills/starts to move east.

Looking at precip chances, Friday night models continue to keep the
precip south and east of the area.  GEFS and EPS struggle to bring
any QPF into the CWA.  Will continue the trend of lowering/removing
pops for Friday night.  Monday night the front looks to have good
sfc convergence as it sweeps through the area.  Models have a dearth
of low level moisture and at this time have no QPF.  The ensemble
systems show the same thing as well.  I do think that this may
change, and some low pops may be added later.  Nonetheless, none of
these `chances` for rain will be all that impactful if they were to
occur.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds move
in later in the period as winds increase locally. Some gusts
near 30kts are possible late in the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs