782
FXUS66 KEKA 262156
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
256 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will rise tomorrow inland as a ridge
builds in. After another trough cools temperatures Tuesday, much
warmer temperatures are expected late week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge has moved into the area, bringing morning
coastal stratus and mostly clear skies inland. Breezy northwest
winds along the coast are expected to diminish by sunset. Calm,
offshore winds will build stratus back in tonight along the coast.
HREF probabilities for ceilings below 1000 ft are around 80 percent
for Humboldt Bay, 60 percent for the Del Norte Coast, and 50 percent
for the Mendocino coast. Stratus is expected to lift by the late
morning and mostly clear skies will prevail. Temperatures inland
Monday will warm, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s in
most of the warmer interior valleys. Stratus will keep temperatures
moderated at the coast, with upper 50s and 60s.

A trough moving through Monday afternoon will allow for some
moisture and instability to move through. This combined with
increased temperatures will enhance instability, bringing the
potential for some light rain showers to pop up in the higher
terrain of Trinity and Mendocino counties. The chance for thunder is
nonzero, but with little mid-level moisture and low lapse rates,
chances are low. NBM gives around a 10 percent probability to see
thunder, while SREF gives around a 20 percent chance.

The trough Tuesday morning will bring more coastal stratus and
drizzle in, with more widespread cloud cover Tuesday morning, and
cooler temperatures Tuesday afternoon inland. A ridge begins to
build back in Wednesday, gradually warming up the interior. Mid to
high 80s are forecast for Thursday, while high 80s to low 90s are
forecast for Friday. Afternoon wind gusts preliminarily look high as
well, with probabilities for wind gusts above 30 mph near 90 percent
along the coast Wednesday and 80 percent Thursday. An even stronger
ridge could warm temperatures even further Friday, but there is some
uncertainty on this still among ensemble members. Ensemble members
do show some agreement on a weaker ridge persisting through next
weekend. JB


&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies have prevailed since late this morning
across the region. Low cloud is expected to redevelop late this
evening and overnight along the Redwood and portions of the Mendo
coast...with most guidance trending toward stratus development,
indicating ceilings remaining primarily IFR with MVFR visibilities.
Otherwise VFR will prevail across the interior.


&&

.MARINE...A weak northerly wind pattern persists. Winds continue to
be accelerated south of Cape Mendocino where gusts up to 32 kts and
short period seas of 6 to 8 feet create Small Craft Advisory
conditions. The steepened seas in the northern waters will drop to 5
ft or less today as winds drop to 15 kt or less. Expect very similar
conditions to carry into next week. A mid period NW swell at around
5 ft at 13 seconds from a late season Pacific trough of low pressure
will also arrive on Tuesday. Building high pressure mid to late next
week will increase northerly winds in all zones. There is growing
probability for gale conditions through that period.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png