Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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791 FXUS64 KFWD 210757 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 257 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Mid level ridging will remain in control of North Texas weather through much of the weekend resulting in hot and dry weather, but changes are on the way early next week. In the meantime, a minimum in PW over North and East Texas associated with the mid level ridge will linger through Saturday night. Southerly winds will slowly tap into better moisture, but the western Gulf is relatively dry at this time. This means we`ll warm up nicely again today with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values topping out just above 100 degrees. Mid level ridging will begin to break down a bit later tonight and Sunday as a fairly strong shortwave spreads out of the Four Corners region and into the Plains. As it does, a cold front will slide southward and should be located across West Texas into Central Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing during this time off to our northwest. While the main shortwave will pass well off to our north, the front will still have some southerly push and should enter our northwest counties after dark Sunday evening. We`ll have some 20-40% PoPs late Sunday afternoon across our far northwest counties but these should increase significantly overnight. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Night through Next Week/ An unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least mid- week with multiple opportunities for rain and near or just below normal temperatures. On Monday, rain and storm chances will spread eastward as the cold front moves across our region. While the greatest forcing will stay well north of our area due to the position of the upper level trough, the front should still give us sufficient lift for at least scattered showers and storm during the day. Given most of the precipitation will occur behind the front, the main hazards will be occasional lighting and brief heavy rain. The good news is that the combination of rain and clouds will keep daytime highs in the 70s and low 80s with the exception of areas ahead of the boundary (the southern counties) where highs could still approach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Large scale troughing across the central U.S. will send another disturbance southward toward the southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This in combination with the lingering surface boundary should give us a few more opportunities to see scattered rain and perhaps a few storms. There are still some uncertainties on the track of the wave, with some guidance showing higher coverage and others keeping the chances for rain until Thursday. For now, we will keep the model blend with PoPs ranging from 20-40% with the highest chances across the western half of the region. The main hazards will again be brief heavy rain and lightning. Otherwise, the afternoon temperatures will remain near or just below normal through Friday with highs generally in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /Issued 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with some passing high clouds and southerly winds around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected at this time. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 76 93 68 81 / 0 0 0 30 30 Waco 96 72 94 71 85 / 0 0 0 10 20 Paris 96 74 93 69 82 / 0 0 0 10 30 Denton 98 74 94 65 80 / 0 0 5 40 30 McKinney 98 74 94 67 81 / 0 0 0 20 30 Dallas 98 76 94 69 82 / 0 0 0 20 30 Terrell 98 72 94 69 84 / 0 0 0 10 30 Corsicana 98 73 94 72 86 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 97 71 94 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 10 Mineral Wells 97 71 93 62 79 / 0 0 10 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$