Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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051 FXUS64 KFWD 211849 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 149 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday/ Mid-level ridging will remain in control through a good chunk of the weekend with hot and dry conditions persisting through at least mid-afternoon Sunday for the entirety of the FWD CWA. Temperatures will top in the mid- to upper 90s this afternoon with heat index values inching above 100 degrees across most of the region. A few locations peaking above 105 degree heat indices are possible this afternoon across portions of North Texas and the DFW Metroplex. Continue to take the proper precautions to keep you and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses. Another mild, humid night is expected tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid-70s. A shortwave trough will gradually shift over the Plains later tonight into Sunday sending a cold front toward North Texas by late Sunday afternoon. FROPA will reach our far northwestern zones around ~3-5PM Sunday evening with scattered showers and storms likely along and in the vicinity of the boundary. An axis of moderate instability along and just ahead of the front with ~30-40 kts deep layer shear overhead will support a few stronger storms late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday evening across our far northwest with the potential for a marginally severe storm or two not out of the question. Rain chances will increase in coverage across our forecast area Sunday night as the front continues to push south. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 257 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ /Sunday Night through Next Week/ An unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least mid- week with multiple opportunities for rain and near or just below normal temperatures. On Monday, rain and storm chances will spread eastward as the cold front moves across our region. While the greatest forcing will stay well north of our area due to the position of the upper level trough, the front should still give us sufficient lift for at least scattered showers and storm during the day. Given most of the precipitation will occur behind the front, the main hazards will be occasional lighting and brief heavy rain. The good news is that the combination of rain and clouds will keep daytime highs in the 70s and low 80s with the exception of areas ahead of the boundary (the southern counties) where highs could still approach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Large scale troughing across the central U.S. will send another disturbance southward toward the southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This in combination with the lingering surface boundary should give us a few more opportunities to see scattered rain and perhaps a few storms. There are still some uncertainties on the track of the wave, with some guidance showing higher coverage and others keeping the chances for rain until Thursday. For now, we will keep the model blend with PoPs ranging from 20-40% with the highest chances across the western half of the region. The main hazards will again be brief heavy rain and lightning. Otherwise, the afternoon temperatures will remain near or just below normal through Friday with highs generally in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. Low stratus will nudge into portions of Central Texas again later tonight into early Sunday morning. There is a ~30% chance that MVFR or lower cigs approach KACT generally after 11Z-12Z Sunday morning. We opted to exclude the MVFR mention from the TAF at this moment due to the low potential. Southerly winds generally below 12 kts gusting to 20 kts at times are expected through the TAF period. Looking ahead, a cold front will push into North Texas from the northwest Sunday evening through early Monday bring the chance for scattered showers and storms. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 93 68 81 66 / 0 5 30 30 10 Waco 73 94 71 85 68 / 0 0 10 20 10 Paris 73 93 69 82 63 / 0 5 10 30 10 Denton 74 94 65 80 62 / 0 5 40 30 10 McKinney 74 94 67 81 63 / 0 5 20 30 10 Dallas 76 95 69 82 67 / 0 5 20 30 10 Terrell 74 94 69 84 64 / 0 0 10 30 5 Corsicana 74 95 72 86 68 / 0 0 5 20 5 Temple 71 94 70 87 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 72 93 62 79 61 / 0 20 50 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$