242
FXUS61 KGYX 311347 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
947 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will make for warm and mostly dry days in the
short term with breezy northwesterly winds. A few light showers
will be possible today in east-central ME but amounts will be
minimal at best. A warming trend will begin this weekend with
any chances for showers remaining minimal. These mild and
generally dry conditions are expected to persist through at
least the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM Update...Going forecast in very good shape this
morning...and matched temperatures/dewpoints to recent
observations while lowering near term cloud cover in line with
GOES-16 visible imagery. Will keep an eye on any afternoon
shower activity over our eastern zones as morning GYX RAOB
paints an inverted V profile and would not be surprised to see
decent gusts beneath any /even light/ showers that develop...if
indeed they do in this moisture-starved boundary layer.

720 AM Update...Quick update to drop the frost advisories as
temperatures round the bend and begin quickly rising this
morning.  No other changes attm.

610 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast other than some
minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures early this
morning.

Previously...

A weak pressure trough will move across the forecast area as an
upper level trough also moves eastward overhead. The net result
will be little in the way of fanfare, other than a period of BKN
clouds this afternoon with a chance of showers in our far
eastern zones. Otherwise, a warm and breezy day is expected for
all of our area. Strong enough opposing flow will likely allow
for the seabreeze to remain offshore except perhaps the
peninsulas and islands this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Another mostly clear night is expected tonight with light winds.
Pockets of radiational cooling are expected, especially in the
far interior, but temperatures should be just high enough to
preclude anything more than patchy frost. Utilized a blend of
MOS guidance for tonight.

Sunny skies with a northwest breeze expected on Saturday. With
high pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine we expect a cooler
onshore flow to develop on the coast by late afternoon.
Otherwise, highs look to be well into the 70s most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A rather quiet weather pattern in the long term with moderating
temperatures. Next chance of widespread showers will hold off
until late next week.

In the dailies: On Sunday a weak warm front will lift north.
This may bring a period of mid to upper level clouds but
moisture appears to be limited. High pressure establishes itself
overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high pushes offshore on
Wednesday as low pressure moves to the Western Great Lakes. As
that low moves into Southern Canada on Thursday, a cold front
will pivot around the low and approach the region during the
day. This will result in an area of showers and possible
thunderstorms later in the day and beyond. Have added patchy
marine fog each night starting Monday Night.

High temperatures will range from the 70`s to lower 80`s with
seabreezes cooling immediate coastal areas and islands. Low
temperatures will moderate from the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday
morning to the mid 50s to around 60 by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR across the terminals this early Friday morning and
this will dominate the period through Saturday. There is some
limited potential for some fog at HIE early this morning...but
confidence in occurrence is not high enough at this time for
inclusion in the 06z TAF.

NW winds gusting up to 20 MPH at times should keep the seabreeze
offshore, but it will probably hug the islands and peninsulas.
A more pronounced seabreeze is expected later Saturday afternoon
as high pressure moves offshore.

Long Term...

Expect VFR to MVFR throughout the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northwesterly winds 10 to 15 kts through the
period will allow both winds and waves to remain below SCA
levels through Saturday.

Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions
through the extended forecast period. Patchy fog mainly at night
starting Monday Night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Both today and Saturday will feature gusty northwesterly winds
15 to 25 MPH with afternoon RH values dropping to between 20 to
35 percent away from the immediate coast. Despite full green-up,
some leftover 1 hour fuels could start to burn and spread.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...ARNOTT