383
FXUS61 KILN 251358
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
958 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal system will initiate scattered showers and
storms today into Thursday. Tropical remnants will then bring
rain to close the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
No major changes from the previous forecast. A weak boundary
continues to slide slowly from west to east, and is currently
along the I-71 corridor. Some scattered fog persists, but will
begin to lift through the mid-morning. The weak front and
diffluent air aloft will continue to aid in scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms east of the front (east of I-71),
however, can`t rule isolated showers to the west of the boundary
given the moist low-level air mass and afternoon warming.

Previous discussion...
An upper level low centered near St. Louis will continue to
sink south and cutoff from the main flow over the lower
Mississippi River Valley today. Low level moisture over the Ohio
Valley will keep considerable clouds across the region, with
only slow decay of morning stratus heading into the afternoon. A
stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will continue to
provide isolated to scattered showers and storms. The humid
atmosphere and clouds will keep high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Complex mid and upper pattern continues tonight into Thursday as
the cut-off low wobbles near the mouth of the Ohio River.
Tropical moisture will flow north ahead of this low from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the central Appalachians and
eventually southern and eastern Ohio. Will continue scattered
showers and storms across the south, especially during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in decent agreement with the remnants of Helene forecast
to track northward into the Tennessee Valley through the day on
Friday before getting wrapped into a deeper upper level low
situated over the central/lower Mississippi Valley. There is
then a little more uncertainty beyond that, but the trend is
toward the upper low then slowly weakening as it drifts east across
the Tennessee Valley through the weekend and across the central
Appalachians into early next week.

The pcpn shield associated with Helene will lift into our area from
the south later Thursday night and into the day on Friday.
Will have categorical pops across our southern areas, tapering
back to chance across our north, with the heaviest QPF generally
remaining along and south of the Ohio River. With a little more
uncertainty then arising with the track of the weakening low, will
mainly just linger some lower end pops through much of the remainder
of the long term period.

High temperatures will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s through the
period with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratus will be the main impact to aviation to start the TAF
period, with bases well below a thousand feet, likely through
around mid-morning. Some heating will allow these to lift to
MVFR, then VFR this afternoon. Can`t rule out a shower or storm
on occasion but coverage will likely be very low for any
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts between 30 to 35 mph possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...