Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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794 FXUS64 KJAN 231736 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Overall today, ridging throughout the forecast area will be the primary meteorological driver for today, that is to say there won`t be much excitement. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal, with heat indices in the mid to high 90s F this afternoon. Looks like late tonight and early tomorrow morning our precipitation chances will begin to pick up with the upstream front dropping down out of the northwest. These precipitation chances will remain elevated (20-35%) throughout the rest of the week due to return flow coming in around the tropical system expected to make landfall around Panama City FL later this week. That all being said, it should be reiterated that for the short term weather will be calm, quiet, and a bit warm./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today through tonight: While much attention is given to the tropical cyclone threat in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, surface high pressure and ridging aloft will continue to dictate our weather during the near term, bringing little in the way of weather impacts and temperatures several degrees above normal. A weak cold front will approach northwest portions of the area by later tonight, and the increased moisture convergence could support increased rain chances over far northwest portions of the area by daybreak. /EC/ Tuesday through Saturday: A wetter extended period is expected as a frontal boundary makes it way towards the area and a potential tropical system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards FL. Expect below-average temps (high in the upper 70s & lower 80s/lows in the 60s) throughout the extended period. An upper-level trough is expected to move in from the northwest, pushing a frontal boundary towards the ArkLaMiss region on Tuesday, and rain chances (15-60%) will gradually increase as the week progresses. This trough will help form a rex block over the central CONUS with energy likely forming a slow-moving closed low over the ArkLaTex/ Ozark region. Concerning tropical development: Model ensembles have come in agreement with the development of a tropical system that is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC has a 70% development chance over the next 48 hrs and a 90% chance over the next 7 days. A lot of uncertainty remains with track and timing of the tropical system, however; confidence is higher that the tropical system is expected to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interaction between the closed off low and tropical system may bring an abundance of moisture transport and some concern for heavy rainfall. As a result, greatest QPF amounts and perhaps some heavy rainfall will be possible in eastern and northern MS. This event is several days away and changes to the forecast are expected; check back for updates as the days progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Overall VFR conditions prevail throughout the period with ridging firmly in place over the region, bringing light south- southwesterly winds./OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 91 68 85 / 0 40 60 60 Meridian 70 92 68 86 / 0 10 50 70 Vicksburg 71 89 67 83 / 0 30 40 50 Hattiesburg 71 93 70 89 / 0 10 20 70 Natchez 70 90 68 85 / 0 30 40 50 Greenville 71 86 65 80 / 20 40 30 40 Greenwood 72 89 65 82 / 10 50 40 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/EC/OAJ