030
FXUS63 KLBF 271112
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues today through Sunday. A strong cold
  front Monday will cool temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.

- Critical fire weather may develop Sunday and Monday. The
  concern is low humidity both days with strong south winds
  Sunday followed by a strong cold front Monday which has the
  potential to produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph from the
  north.

- No rain is expected during the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

A weak Pacific cold front is drifting through wrn Nebraska this
morning. The front will continue moving south and east today and
washout tonight across KS. Very modest cold air advection is
expected behind the front and warm air advection will resume
Saturday. So, the temperature forecast continues to use a blend of
the warmer MET/MAV guidance plus the NBM 95th percentile for highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Saturday. This strategy
worked fairly well with Thursday`s highs.

Winds will remain light at mostly 10 mph or less today through
Saturday and the reason for this is the weak pressure gradient
between sfc high pressure across the nrn Plains and sfc low pressure
across the Pacific NW.

A fresh batch of dry Pacific air will spread into wrn and ncntl
Nebraska tonight and Saturday. PWAT falls from 0.70 inches to
0.60, according to the model consensus and h850-300mb RH falls
from 35 percent to just 20 to 25 percent. All of this supports
clear skies and short but strong daytime heating which is the
mentality for leaning warm on the high temperature forecast. The
temperature forecast Friday night uses the cooler guidance
blend for lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This forecast is
slightly warmer than the NBM 25th percentile.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

There is little change in the extended forecast. Very warm weather
is in place Sunday followed by a strong cold front Monday and a
second weaker cold front late Wednesday. The warm weather
Sunday is being driven by two features; an upper level ridge
across the Four-corners region as a source for warm air
advection and sfc low pressure across the nrn Plains and srn
Canada to draw the air into Nebraska.

The series of Pacific cold fronts and associated dry air pretty much
seals a dry forecast for the next 7 days. Other than a brief pool of
moisture with the cold front Monday, PWAT will remain less than 0.65
inches through next Thursday and h850-300mb RH is generally 40
percent or less today through Thursday. There are no rain chances in
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning
across western and north central Nebraska. North winds this
morning become easterly this afternoon, at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Little if any rainfall is expected across western and north central
Nebraska during the next 7 days and elevated fire weather
conditions are likely across parts of the region through at
least Wednesday.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of
western and north central Nebraska Sunday and Monday. The concern is
low humidity both days with strong south winds Sunday followed by a
strong cold front Monday which has the potential to produce wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph from the north.

Otherwise, very dry air will remain across the region leading to low
humidity. Cooler weather next Thursday may cause afternoon humidity
to remain above 20 percent.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...CDC