745
FXUS63 KLSX 291858
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
158 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through tomorrow with at or just below normal
  temperatures. Temperatures will climb back above normal next
  week.

- Showers will be likely along with a few thunderstorms from
  Friday into Saturday. There will be additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The latest water vapor analysis is showing is showing a upper ridge
over the Plains which the HREF shows moving across the Midwest on
Thursday.  This will bring dry weather to the region until at least
late Thursday night when there will be an increase in some low level
moisture convergence over central and northeast Missouri that could
bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms.   Otherwise, the
front still remains south of the area with a surface high centered
over Hudson Bay and a surface ridge nosing down into eastern
Missouri.  The HREF is showing the ridge moving east of the area
tonight causing the winds to turn out of the east and then southeast
tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Lows tonight will be similar to this
morning`s and highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today`s.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

There is still reasonable agreement between the deterministic models
that a shortwave trough will still move across Missouri and Illinois
on Friday night into early Saturday.  The same models have varying
tracks of the attendant surface low, but still show a swath of QPF
moving across the CWA.  Then the model solutions begin to vary late
weekend into early next week as the individual models are showing
different timing and strength with the subsequent troughs. The LREF
does show a trough moving through the area early in the weekend
followed by quasi-zonal flow setting up over the Midwest. It has 40-
70% PoPs on Friday night and Saturday, but then decreases the rest
of the period, particularly late in the weekend when it appears that
a shortwave ridge may be moving through the area.  By early next
week, the NBM/LREF has spread out 30-60% PoPs when the individual
ensemble members has additional shortwaves moving across the area.
The potential for organized severe weather continues to look low.

Temperatures are still expected to climb above normal early next
week as the LREF is showing 850mb temperatures climbing from around
10C on Friday to near 20C early-mid next week with low level flow
turning out of the south to southwest.  Confidence in the warm up
continues to be high as the NBM IQR is around 5 degrees or less.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
remain light through the period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX