Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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365 FXUS64 KLZK 210502 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1202 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The upper level ridge over the area will be weakening during the short term period, as a closed low over southern CA lifts and moves off to the northeast toward the upper midwest. At the surface, a cold front will drop down and stall near the corner of NW Arkansas over the weekend. The upper flow will be nearly parallel to the front, so it should not make it down into the forecast area, at least in the short term. A few batches of showers and thunderstorms will occur over northern AR tonight, tomorrow, and again on Sunday. If the storms over northern AR tomorrow afternoon become a little more organized, it`s not out of the question that a few storms could make it into central AR. The likelihood of that, however, is low at the moment. Temperatures tomorrow will be about the same as today, and a few degrees lower on Sunday. We have a heat advisory in effect for central AR westward up the River Valley today, and the dewpoints look to be a bit lower tomorrow...so I will not be issuing any advisories with this package. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge southward. At the sfc, a cold front will make its way across the state from Mon-Tue. This front will usher in cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the week. Highs on Monday could be quite interesting as the front bisects the area from SW to NE, leading to 70s F across NW AR while southeast portions of the state climb into the 90s F. Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff just north of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and west. At the sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW toward the state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool temperatures and some occasional rain chances/periods of cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail over the majority of the forecast period from early Saturday morning through early Sunday morning for all terminals with a few brief exceptions. The exceptions will be some patchy fog that may develop across the northern and western sites of KBPK, KHOT, and KADF which could drop VSBY to MVFR flight category just prior to sunrise on Saturday morning. Later on Saturday from around noon through Saturday evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across northern Arkansas and impact the sites of KHRO and KBPK where CIGS and VSBY may drop to MVFR flight category given an isolated shower or thunderstorm passes over the airfield. However, any deviation from VFR flight category across all terminals would be brief over the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 93 69 92 70 / 30 10 20 10 Camden AR 96 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 92 69 89 66 / 30 10 40 30 Hot Springs AR 97 71 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 96 73 95 74 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 96 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 97 69 93 69 / 10 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 92 69 90 68 / 40 20 30 30 Newport AR 92 69 91 71 / 20 10 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 95 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 96 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 Searcy AR 94 69 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 Stuttgart AR 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...74