Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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642 FXUS64 KMAF 221752 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1252 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Radar this morning shows convection has dissipated across the area. The cap held south of I-10/20 yesterday so severe weather was confined mainly to the SPC slight risk area of southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. The upper low that caused the storms is now in the central Rockies and will move into the Plains later today sending a cold front south. Storms will again develop today, mainly along and ahead of the front and the progress of the front will be crucial in determining where convection will be. Fronts tend to move slower in the daytime so it is more likely that models have a good handle on this frontal timing which is southeastern New Mexico by sunrise, I-20 by noon, and I- 10/the Big Bend before sunset. This confines the highest rain chances south of I-20, mainly from Big Lake to Alpine. A few storms could become severe but the threat is lower than we saw yesterday due to increasing stability from the departing upper low. There may be some light rain or drizzle developing overnight behind the front in the Permian Basin but rainfall amounts if any should only be a few hundredths of an inch. Cold air advection and clouds behind the front may create a sharp temperature contrast between southeastern New Mexico and the northern Basin with areas farther south. MAV/MET guidance is showing temps in Eddy and Lea counties holding in the 60s and that seems entirely reasonable where areas ahead of the front will easily reach the 80s and 90s this afternoon. Lower dewpoints and modest cool air advection help lows drop into the 50s and low 60s tonight and lingering clouds will allow for a nice fall-like Monday with highs only in the 70s. Low rain chances remain along the I-10 corridor on Monday but any rainfall amounts will be very light. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tuesday and Wednesday maintain the pattern of cooler temperatures and continued rain chances across the area. A deepening trough is expected to extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains through the beginning of the period. This deepening system should send a reinforcing cold front through the region late Tuesday to early Wednesday. With this cold front and broad trough, continued rain chances are expected as broad ascent is maintained across the region. The best chance of rain is going to be focused nearest to and just behind the frontal boundary as it moves south through the region. Once this front clears the area to the south late in the day on Wednesday, a gradual end to precipitation is anticipated. Overall, temperatures Tuesday should be just a tad below normal across the region before falling further below normal on Wednesday behind the cold front. Thursday onwards sees another stagnant pattern take shape across the CONUS. A cutoff-low is expected to develop over the Southeast with a building ridge near the Four Corners. This maintains dry northwest flow aloft over the southern Great Plains, keeping things dry. Despite the building ridge over the Four Corners, temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal as surface high pressure is maintained across the Great Plains. While the drier weather is a bummer, the continued fall-like temperatures are very much welcomed. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR ceilings persist at issuance for all but MAF and PEQ, though all terminals are expected to see at least a few hours of VFR conditions this afternoon into early this evening. However, low ceilings return quickly between 00Z-06Z, potentially holding off for FST and CNM until 08Z-10Z, with a medium to high potential (50-75%) of IFR ceilings at MAF and FST by daybreak. Low ceilings will persist thereafter through the end of the period, along with periods of MVFR visibility in drizzle/fog, especially for eastern terminals. SHRA has developed east of HOB and north of MAF, with increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon onward. However, low confidence in timing/location precludes mention at this time, thus will monitor and amend as needed. Winds will shift to the north and northeast at all terminals, with gusts to around 20-25kt this afternoon and early evening, becoming light tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 58 74 61 85 / 70 30 30 40 Carlsbad 55 80 59 85 / 10 10 10 40 Dryden 67 81 66 86 / 50 30 10 30 Fort Stockton 60 74 62 85 / 50 30 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 52 74 59 78 / 10 20 10 30 Hobbs 54 76 58 83 / 10 10 10 40 Marfa 57 75 55 81 / 20 30 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 58 73 60 84 / 60 30 30 40 Odessa 59 74 62 84 / 50 30 30 40 Wink 61 78 62 87 / 30 30 20 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...84