Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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609 FXUS62 KMFL 270643 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 243 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Hurricane Helene made landfall along Florida`s Big Bend region last night, and the system continues to move north into the mid- latitudes with time. In the wake of the system`s passage, a swath of enhanced moisture will remain across portions of South Florida. Elevated surface winds out of the southwest will act to enhance low-level convergence, which may help spawn shower and thunderstorm activity at times today. Warm upper level temperatures will limit deep convection, as the activity that spawns today will be shallow in nature. With that said, strong wind gusts will be possible, as the highest gusts within showers/storms may reach up to around 40-50 mph. Rainfall accumulations could reach up to around and inch or two (at most), though otherwise expect quick downpours with meager rainfall totals. By Saturday, the aforementioned fetch of moisture will progress northward, allowing for drier air to filter in over the region. Nevertheless, sufficient remnant moisture should allow for several showers and thunderstorms to spawn; the highest coverage is anticipated over southwest portions of Florida. Aside from brief downpours and gusty winds, expect run-of-the-mill convection with little vertical extent. Heat will be the primary concern through the weekend, as southwest winds allow for a maritime tropical airmass to advect over the region. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s, allowing for heat indices to reach as a high as 105 to 110 degrees. As a result, heat advisories will likely be needed through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 The moisture fetch will continue to drift northward with time, eventually clearing out of the area by Sunday. For the latter half of the weekend, expect much drier conditions as a plume of drier air filters in over the region in concordance with an expanding surface ridge of high pressure. Through the early/mid-week period, H500 ridging remains dominant, generally suppressing development of showers and thunderstorms. With that being said, some remnant moisture may drift southward and allow for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to spawn at times. Overall, expect mostly benign weather and a generally drier pattern to prevail, with PoPs remaining below climatological ranges through much of next week. Strong upper ridging, weak surface winds, and the lack of abundant rainfall/cloud cover will generally allow for warm temperatures through the weekend and next week. Maximum temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s while dewpoints remain in the mid 70s. This may prompt the issuance of heat advisories through this time period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings expected through the 06Z TAF period. Breezy S/SW winds 15-20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts this morning decreasing slightly to 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts late in the day. SCT thunderstorms today may result in brief flight restrictions along with erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Dangerous seas will gradually subside, though remaining hazardous. As a result, Small Craft Advisories may eventually replace the Tropical Storm Warning today. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds will prevail through the early part of the weekend, and scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible through this same period. Expect a drying trend towards the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Gulf Coast through today, as moderate southwest flow remains in the wake of Hurricane Helene`s passage. For the Atlantic beaches, a rip current statement is in effect through at least this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 80 93 79 / 70 40 30 10 West Kendall 92 78 93 77 / 70 40 30 10 Opa-Locka 92 80 93 79 / 70 40 40 10 Homestead 90 80 92 78 / 70 40 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 92 79 / 70 40 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 93 79 / 70 40 40 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 95 80 / 70 40 40 10 West Palm Beach 92 79 93 78 / 70 50 50 20 Boca Raton 93 80 93 78 / 70 50 40 10 Naples 89 80 90 80 / 50 60 60 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Carr