017
FXUS62 KMLB 260628
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
228 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Increasing SE to S winds as Hurricane Helene strengthens over the
eastern Gulf and accelerates N/NE next 12-18 hours. Prevailing VFR
to start with VCSH at all terminals. Will be watching for some
increase in SHRA/isold TSRA developing over the terminals toward
daybreak as rainbands lift northward across the southern and
western FL peninsula. "Helene" will bring significant aviation
impacts to all terminals on Thursday as S/SE winds increase 20-30
knots with gusts 45-55 knots possible esp in fast-moving
rainbands. AMDs likely needed but have inserted a TEMPO from
18Z-22Z for best chance for IFR/MVFR reductions. Have maintained
mention of non- convective LLWS for MCO btwn 00Z-06Z when wind
fields maximize just above the sfc.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Local preparations ahead of Hurricane Helene`s impacts should now
be complete. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate overnight into
Thursday morning as the cyclone intensifies, moving north-
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most locations have
experienced a brief break from the rain in the last hour or two,
but another outer rain band from Helene is impacting the Treasure
Coast and is expected to continue north toward the Space Coast in
the next 1-2 hours. These heavy showers will pack gusty winds of
30 to 45 mph as they quickly move from south to north. Continued
episodes of gusty rain bands, intermixed with periods of dry time,
will last through sunrise Thursday.

Deeper moisture is advecting northward and will continue to do so
tonight, as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the
Florida Peninsula. The evening XMR sounding showed quite the
increase in moisture when compared to this morning`s data (1.86"
PW at 15z to 2.25" at 00z). RAP analysis indicates MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg along the coast, and model guidance suggests this will
expand overnight as MLCIN begins to decrease. Surface- based CIN
will also erode gradually through the night, with SBCAPE climbing
to 1000-2000 J/kg along and east of Interstate 95. Hi- res
guidance depicts the highest lightning chances focused near the
coast or just offshore. Gusty winds to 45 mph and a brief
waterspout or tornado cannot be ruled out through sunrise along
the coast. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, in
the event they are issued later tonight. Conditions will
worsen on Thursday with daytime heating and increasing low/mid
level wind shear enhancing the already gusty squalls expected
across the state. The tornado threat is forecast to increase
during the daylight hours, along with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. Continue to monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather
Radio, and local news outlets for updated, official information on
Helene.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the adjacent Atlantic
waters out to 60 nm. Hurricane Helene is forecast to continue to
strengthen over eastern Gulf of Mexico and accelerate into the FL
Big Bend late Thursday. Boating conditions will continue to
deteriorate tonight, as southeast winds increase to 25-30kts by
daybreak, then 30-40kts Thursday afternoon. Seas building 7-8ft
tonight, then peaking at 13ft offshore Volusia and Brevard
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Deep moisture lifting
northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms
through Thursday. Winds will become southwest Friday, decreasing
to 20-25kts and will continue to gradually decrease to near 15
knots late Friday night. Seas quickly subsiding below 5 ft along
the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft
offshore Friday. Flow remains offshore (W to SW) Saturday-Sunday
up to 15 knots, with seas subsiding 3-4 Saturday and 2-3 ft Sun.
There will be scattered to numerous storms pushing offshore
especially Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  78  92  76 /  80  60  40  30
MCO  90  79  91  77 /  80  50  50  30
MLB  90  79  92  77 /  70  50  70  50
VRB  90  78  92  77 /  70  50  70  50
LEE  88  78  90  77 /  90  70  30  20
SFB  88  79  91  77 /  80  50  50  30
ORL  89  80  91  78 /  80  60  50  30
FPR  90  79  91  77 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Kelly